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Stuart Rothenberg

Bio:

Stuart Rothenberg is editor and publisher of the Rothenberg Political Report, a nonpartisan, nonideological political newsletter covering U.S. House, Senate and gubernatorial campaigns. He is also a twice-a-week columnist for Roll Call. His column covers campaigns, elections, presidential politics and current political developments.

He holds a B.A. from Colby College (Waterville, Maine) and a Ph.D. in political science from the University of Connecticut. He has taught at Bucknell University (Lewisburg, Pennsylvania) and at the Catholic University of America (Washington, D.C.).

A frequent soundbite, Stu has appeared on Meet the Press, This Week, Face the Nation, the NewsHour, Nightline and many other television programs. He is often quoted in the nation's major media, and his op-eds have appeared in the New York Times, the Washington Post, the Wall Street Journal and other newspapers.

Stu served during the 2008 and 2010 election cycles as an analyst for the NewsHour on PBS. During the 2006 cycle, he was a political analyst for CBS News. Prior to that, he was a political analyst for CNN for over a decade, including election nights from 1992 through 2004. He has also done on-air analysis for the Voice of America.

He is married, has two children and lives in Potomac, Md.

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Stories by Stuart Rothenberg:

A Critical Few Weeks for Democrats? It Could Get Worse

Nov. 13, 2013

No wonder some Democratic strategists are nervous about the next few weeks.

Why Most Postmortems of Virginia's Gubernatorial Race Are Wrong

Nov. 11, 2013

The dust has settled (mostly) from last week’s elections, so I thought it time to present a very different assessment of what happened in Virginia than the snapshot I’ve seen from others.

Buyer Beware: There Are Polls, and Then There Are Polls

Nov. 7, 2013

Given the “success” (note sarcasm) of some polls in the Virginia gubernatorial race Tuesday, it might be worthwhile to note the very divergent surveys in the Texas gubernatorial race.

Victory Is in the Eye of the Beholder in New Jersey, Virginia and Alabama

Nov. 6, 2013

Tuesday’s election results offer something for everyone.

Correcting the (Politico) Record on Louisiana

Nov. 5, 2013

I had to laugh when I saw the headline in the Nov. 4 paper edition of Politico: “Louisiana Key to GOP Senate Control.”

Two House Candidates Who Stumbled Over Simple Questions

Nov. 4, 2013

Retired Air Force Col. Martha McSally is personable and engaging, and her 2,454-vote loss to Democratic Rep. Ron Barber in Arizona’s 2nd District in 2012 demonstrates that she has appeal as a congressional candidate.

In Louisiana, Democrats Doth Protest Too Much

Oct. 30, 2013

If you were a Democrat who thought the GOP was heading toward selecting a weak nominee incapable of beating Sen. Mary L. Landrieu, D-La., next year, would you tear down that damaged candidate, knowing that it might bring stronger hopefuls into the race? Or would you keep your mouth shut, so Republicans would nominate the sure loser?

6 Democratic House Candidates With Plenty of Potential

Oct. 28, 2013

In this political environment, not having an extensive legislative record can be an asset. Not surprisingly then, three of six Democratic House candidates I interviewed recently have never before sought elective office, and a fourth was elected as a judge, not a legislator. (I will discuss a seventh Democratic hopeful, Martha Robertson, in a separate column.)

'The Political Middle Has Disappeared'

Oct. 22, 2013

A terrific post-shutdown “after action report” by Bill McInturff of Public Opinion Strategies, who is one-half of the bipartisan polling team that conducts the NBC News/Wall Street Journal poll, includes one slide (No. 7) that I found particularly instructive.

The Most Important Election of 2014

Oct. 21, 2013

So now we know.

For GOP, the Damage Is Undeniable

Oct. 16, 2013

The deal to open the government and raise the debt ceiling may be done, but the damage to the national Republican Party is considerable.

Is Cruz Causing a Democratic Wave? Maybe, but Don't Jump the Gun

Oct. 11, 2013

Last week I observed that I hadn’t yet seen “compelling evidence” that a Democratic political wave could be developing. I can no longer say that after seeing the recently released NBC News/Wall Street Journal poll.

Shutdown Fever: Is the House in Play Now?

Oct. 7, 2013

On Sunday, a Huffington Post headline screamed what most Democrats were hoping: “GOP In Grave Danger Of Losing House In 2014, PPP Polls Show.” Of course, anything coming from Democratic pollster Public Policy Polling and MoveOn.org Political Action, which paid for the surveys, must be taken with at least a grain of salt.

Bad Polling + Wishful Thinking = Bad Journalism

Oct. 3, 2013

I’m not sure which is worse — a silly Steve Lonegan poll in the New Jersey Senate race or the way a handful of conservative “news” outlets treated it. They are both pretty terrible.

Republican Senate Hopefuls Vary in Quality, Approach

Oct. 1, 2013

I recently interviewed four Republican Senate candidates in the space of one week, and if I had to draw a single assessment from those meetings it would be that there is plenty of diversity in the GOP’s class of Senate hopefuls.The four differed in stature, style and background, and they dealt with the party’s internal debate of style and strategies in a variety of ways.

OMG!!! A GOVERNMENT SHUTDOWN. Or Maybe Not

Sept. 26, 2013

Once again, Henny Penny is running around to warn us that the sky is falling. A government shutdown is only [fill in the blank] days, [fill in the blank] hours and [fill in the blank] minutes away. The countdown clock shows the seconds ticking by. The end is near.

RNC Fundraises Off Ted Cruz

Sept. 24, 2013

Republican National Committee Chairman Reince Priebus is an advocate of the big-tent approach to grow the GOP, but apparently he isn’t above grabbing onto Texas Sen. Ted Cruz’s coattails if it can help fundraising.

How Bad Is the GOP Rift? Worse Than Democrats in the 1980s

Sept. 23, 2013

Political parties seem to suffer through internal battles periodically, but the current state of the GOP is much worse than what Democrats went through some 25 years ago, when organized labor and old-style liberals fought against the Democratic Leadership Council for the soul of the party.

Is South Carolina's Nikki Haley in Trouble?

Sept. 16, 2013

If you listen to South Carolina Democrats, you are pretty certain that Republican Gov. Nikki R. Haley is in deep trouble next year. Not so, says Haley’s top strategist, Jon Lerner, arguing she is very likely to win re-election. Both assessments can’t be correct, can they?

Michigan: There’s a Sucker Born Every Minute

Sept. 12, 2013

Attorney David Trott’s recent announcement that he plans to challenge freshman Rep. Kerry Bentivolio, R-Mich., in next year’s GOP primary in the 11th District has gotten plenty of attention, both in Roll Call and elsewhere. And it deserved it, since Bentivolio is one of a very small handful of House incumbents who seem poised to lose bids for renomination.

And for John Kasich's Next Act in Politics ...

Sept. 10, 2013

We will know in a little more than a year whether John R. Kasich has a second act, or even a third one, in politics. But don’t be surprised if he does.

Barack Obama’s Sad Sausage-Making Foreign Policy

Sept. 10, 2013

They say that the process of making sausage isn’t pretty, but all that matters is how it tastes. And often, that applies to politics, as well.

Ratings Change: Virginia Governor

Sept. 9, 2013

As the stretch run for the Virginia gubernatorial election begins, Democrat Terry McAuliffe has established himself as a narrow but clear front-runner over state Attorney General Ken Cuccinelli, a Republican.

Obama's Muddled Syria Politics

Sept. 3, 2013

President Barack Obama’s jaw-dropping decision over the holiday weekend to ask Congress for authorization to strike Syria was initially seen by some as a savvy political move, because it gives him political cover and puts Republicans in the hot seat.

Keep Your Eye on the Dow

Aug. 28, 2013

While the Dow Jones Industrial Average is up just short of 13 percent over the past year, it has lost almost 850 points since it hit its 52-week high of 15,658.43 on Aug. 2. With the Dow closing today at 14,824.51, that’s a drop of only 5.3 percent.

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