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Nathan L. Gonzales


Nathan L. Gonzales is Editor & Publisher of The Rothenberg & Gonzales Political Report, a non-partisan newsletter covering U.S. House, Senate and gubernatorial campaigns and Presidential politics. He was an editor, analyst, and writer for The Rothenberg Political Report for more than 13 years before taking over the newsletter in 2015.


Nathan is also Founder and Publisher of, which features state-based political news from the Left, the Right and non-partisan sources.


Since 2002, Nathan has worked as an off-air consultant for ABC NEWS on their Election Night Decision Desk. Previously, he worked for and as associate producer for CNN’s Capital Gang.ûNathan has appeared on NBC's Meet the Press and NBC Nightly News, the Newshour on PBS, C-SPAN's Washington Journal, CNN, and Fox News Channel, and he has been quoted in The New York Times, Washington Post, Wall Street Journal, and USA Today. His work has also appeared on FiveThirtyEight,, and in Campaigns & Elections magazine.


Nathan grew up in Oregon, earned his M.A. from the George Washington University's Graduate School of Political Management (Washington, DC) and his B.A. from Vanguard University (Costa Mesa, California). He first came to Washington, D.C. as an intern in the White House Press Office and now lives in the city with his wife and three children.

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Stories by Nathan L. Gonzales:

Ratings Change: Kirk's Race Now Tilts to Democrats

May 29, 2015

At least a handful of GOP senators are vulnerable this election cycle, but none more than Mark S. Kirk of Illinois.

14 Open House Seats, Few Takeover Opportunities

May 27, 2015

More than 90 percent of House incumbents routinely get re-elected, so open seats are a hot commodity. Five months into the 114th Congress, 14 House members have announced their departure, but just four of the seats they are leaving behind can be considered competitive.

Kirkpatrick’s Decision Prompts Ratings Changes in 2 Arizona Races

May 26, 2015

Democratic Rep. Ann Kirkpatrick’s challenge to Republican Sen. John McCain impacts our ratings of two races in Arizona.

Why 500 Attack Emails Couldn’t Take Down Thom Tillis

May 19, 2015

There were a few constants during the 2014 cycle: death, taxes, my three young kids waking up before 7 a.m. and a daily Democratic email attacking North Carolina Speaker Thom Tillis. But in the end, even in the face of hundreds of blistering emails, the Republican challenger knocked off Democratic Sen. Kay Hagan in one of the most competitive Senate races in the country.

Ratings Change: Democrats Eye Seat After Being Shut Out in 2014

May 15, 2015

The GOP didn’t have any trouble last year holding Buck McKeon’s open seat in Southern California after two Republicans finished in the top two in the primary and moved on to the general election. Steve Knight won the seat, 53 percent to 47 percent, over Tony Strickland, a two-time congressional candidate.

Parties Divide and Conquer Independent Spending

May 7, 2015

Having more than $50 million to spend on House races in the final months of the campaign may sound like fun, but both campaign committees have figured out it’s not a one-person job.

Senate Races, Pro Salaries and Perspective on Spending

May 5, 2015

Complaining about campaign spending is a time-honored tradition, along with the Kentucky Derby and Major League Baseball. But a closer look reveals the dollars spent on controlling government pales in comparison to spending in other areas of life.

House Playing Field Is Small, but Can Change

April 28, 2015

With a year and a half to go before the 2016 elections, the House playing field is too small for Democrats to retake the majority. But there is time for the cycle to develop in favor of down-ballot Democratic candidates and for the number of competitive seats to grow.

Tester's DSCC Pursues Same Strategy That Nearly Nixed Him in 2006

April 27, 2015

If the Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee had its way a decade ago, its current chairman probably wouldn’t be in the Senate today.

Context for Facebook Chatter About Presidential Candidates

April 17, 2015

Millions of people have talked about the presidential contenders on Facebook as they officially launch campaigns. But despite some gaudy numbers, context and limits of the data cast doubt on the impact Facebook conversations will have on the race.

Elder Members Aren’t the Only Ones to Retire

April 13, 2015

The usual way to identify potential House retirements is to pick out the oldest members of each caucus. But that strategy misses an entire crop of potential exits, because the most senior members aren’t the only ones to call it quits.

Wyden Looks Safe, but Democratic Rift Is Real

April 10, 2015

Liberal groups have targeted Oregon Sen. Ron Wyden for defeat in next year’s elections unless he sides with them on upcoming trade deals. But any talk about the four-term Democrat’s vulnerability is premature until there is a challenger.

Illinois Democrat Hesitant on House Race

Feb. 3, 2015

Former Illinois Lt. Gov. Sheila Simon, a potential Democratic recruit in a top pick-up opportunity for House Democrats in Illinois this cycle, demurred on the possibility of a bid next year.

Democrats Shocked by Giffords Aide's Decision to Join McSally Staff

Jan. 12, 2015

C.J. Karamargin isn’t the first congressional staffer to cross the partisan aisle, but some Democrats are shocked this former staffer to Democratic Rep. Gabrielle Giffords is working for the new Republican congresswoman in Arizona’s 2nd District.

Sources: Chris Gibson Will Announce Retirement

Jan. 5, 2015

Rep. Chris Gibson, R-N.Y., will announce his retirement Tuesday, according to two GOP sources.

Chuck Schumer’s Dream: A Democratic Nightmare

July 28, 2014

New York Sen. Charles E. Schumer laid out his dream for a less partisan Washington recently. But the Democrat’s New York Times op-ed is giving some strategists in his own party nightmares.

Rating Change: Illinois’ 10th District

July 22, 2014

Former Rep. Robert Dold, R-Ill., nearly survived Democrats’ redistricting efforts and a presidential election year, but he lost re-election in the 10th District in 2012. Dold is running again this year against the man who beat him, Democratic Rep. Brad Schneider.

Rating Change: Nebraska’s 2nd District

July 21, 2014

Rep. Lee Terry, R-Neb., has a history of making races closer than they need to be — and 2014 appears to be no different.

Rating Change: New York’s 18th District

July 21, 2014

Republican Nan Hayworth isn’t the only former member of Congress looking to come back to the Hill. But she spent much of the cycle looking like such a long shot that she didn’t get the same attention as former Reps. Bob Dold of Illinois, Frank Guinta of New Hampshire, or even Doug Ose of California.

Rating Change: Florida’s 18th District

July 21, 2014

After a narrow victory in 2012 in a GOP-tilting district, Rep. Patrick Murphy, D-Fla., looked like a prime target for Republicans in 2014. But the congressman’s fundraising, endorsements and campaign have him in progressively better position for a second term.

Rating Change: Florida’s 2nd District

July 21, 2014

The competitive nature of Florida’s 2nd District is not in dispute, but the ability of a Democrat to get over the top is a much larger question.

GOP Can't Catch a Break in Congressional Baseball Recruitment

July 18, 2014

Phil Berger Jr.’s loss in Tuesday’s Republican runoff in North Carolina’s 6th District was about more than an establishment favorite getting knocked off by an anti-establishment challenger.

'Would You Rather?' House Race Edition

July 16, 2014

In the game “Would You Rather?” one is usually faced with a choice between two difficult and undesirable options.

Rating Change: Wisconsin Governor

July 11, 2014

Wisconsin is one of the most polarized state’s in the country, so Republican Gov. Scott Walker was never going to have an easy re-election bid.

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