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Nathan L. Gonzales

Bio:

Nathan L. Gonzales is political editor of The Rothenberg Political Report, a nonpartisan political newsletter covering U.S. House, Senate and gubernatorial campaigns, and presidential politics. He has been with the Report for over nine years and is also a contributing writer for Roll Call, the Capitol Hill newspaper.

Since 2002, Nathan has worked as an off-air consultant for ABC NEWS on their Election Night Decision Desk. Previously, he worked for CNN.com and as associate producer for CNN’s “Capital Gang.”

His quotes have appeared in the New York Times, Washington Post, Wall Street Journal and USA Today, as well as numerous state and regional newspapers all across the country. Nathan has also appeared on CNN, Fox News Channel, and other local network affiliates.

Nathan, an Oregon native, holds a M.A. from the George Washington University (Washington, D.C.), a B.A. from Vanguard University (Costa Mesa, Calif.), and has interned in the White House Press Office. He is married with two children and lives in Washington, D.C.

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Stories by Nathan L. Gonzales:

In Campaign Ads, ‘Week One’ Is Still Months Away

June 18, 2014

It can feel like the 2014 congressional races have been going on forever, so when a campaign strategist talks about “Week One,” it can be confusing that Week One is still actually four months away.

Michelle Obama for Senate in 2016: Is It Even a Rumor?

June 13, 2014

The Michelle Obama for Senate in 2016 stories are classic examples of an out-of-control media narrative that is based on little hard evidence.

Obama's New Nuance on His Student Loans

June 12, 2014

President Barack Obama made a fresh case for student loan overhaul with an executive order this week, but he also relayed a much more nuanced version of his own college debt experience.

How and Why Eric Cantor Lost

June 11, 2014

House Majority Leader Eric Cantor lost his primary in convincing fashion, but there appear to be two separate questions: How did he lose? And why was it a surprise?

Rating Change: Oregon Senate

June 9, 2014

With pediatric neurosurgeon Monica Wehby’s Republican nomination in Oregon, national GOP strategists believe they have pulled another state onto the Senate playing field. But she still starts the general election as a considerable underdog against Democratic Sen. Jeff Merkley.

Why Do We Suddenly Care About Races for Lt. Governor?

June 5, 2014

The office of lieutenant governor is so important that five states don’t even have one, yet that hasn’t stopped the national political media from treating some contests for the office as crucial indicators of something.

Race Ratings Change: California’s 25th District

June 4, 2014

Projecting which party is going to win a competitive seat in November can be challenging — except when one party doesn’t even have a candidate.

Always Be Nice to the Person Who Answers the Phones: Oregon Senate Edition

May 29, 2014

One hidden lesson from the recent Senate primary in Oregon: Always be nice to the lowest staffers in your office, because you never know where they might end up.

Rating Change: Georgia Governor

May 23, 2014

Gov. Nathan Deal had no problems in the Republican primary this week, but the November general election could be a different story.

Race Rating Change: Michigan Governor

May 22, 2014

As a Republican governor in a blue state, Rick Snyder started the midterms as one of Democrats’ prime targets. But while Michigan has been a tossup for much of the cycle, it appears to be slipping from the top tier of opportunities.

Rating Change: Hawaii Governor

May 21, 2014

It’s only been eight years since Republican Linda Lingle was elected to her second term as governor of Hawaii. But her success in that race overestimates the GOP’s chances in future statewide elections, including this year’s gubernatorial race.

Democrats Wield Abortion Rights as Campaign Weapon in Primaries, Too

May 15, 2014

One party is using abortion as wedge issue in races all across the country — and it’s not the Republicans.

Rating Change: Florida’s 13th District

May 13, 2014

Apparently Democrats are determined to challenge the old political axiom, “You can’t beat somebody with nobody” in Florida’s 13th District.

The Most Influential Losing Congressional Candidate in the Country

May 13, 2014

University of Illinois professor George Gollin forced one of Democrats’ top recruits to spend a few hundred thousand dollars to win the primary. Now Gollin is popping up in other House races hundreds of miles away and potentially causing problems for more top recruits.

Rating Change: North Carolina Senate

May 7, 2014

State House Speaker Thom Tillis won the GOP nomination outright on Tuesday, setting up a general election match-up against Democratic Sen. Kay Hagan in one of the top Senate races in the country. Even though Hagan’s polling numbers have been mediocre at best, we gave her a slight edge in the race because of uncertainty in the Republican primary.

Why This Year’s Primaries Won’t End GOP Civil War

May 7, 2014

The Republican establishment is fighting back, but winning a few primaries this year won’t do much to end the insurgency from party purists. It only takes one general election loss by an establishment candidate to reignite the fire.

Beware of the Surprise House Primary Losers

May 5, 2014

Rep. Mike Simpson looks like he’ll survive the epic establishment vs. anti-establishment struggle in the GOP primary in Idaho’s 2nd District. But if last cycle is any indication, the incumbents that lose primaries this year will be in low-profile races rather than high profile battles between outside groups.

Democrats Field Recruit Against Jolly ... Sort Of (Updated)

May 2, 2014

Updated 2:48 p.m. | Democrats have landed a last-minute recruit, Col. Ed Jany, a registered Democrat, to challenge Rep. David Jolly, R-Fla., this fall.

How to Ruin Your Interview With Stu Rothenberg

April 30, 2014

After interviewing more than 1,000 candidates for the House and Senate with my colleague, Stu Rothenberg, I’ve got a pretty good idea of what makes him tick and what just plain ticks him off.

Grimm Indictment Gives Democrats Best Chance to Defeat an Incumbent

April 28, 2014

New York Rep. Michael G. Grimm’s arrest reminded me of one of my worst mistakes as a political handicapper.

When Birth Certificates and Senate Races Clash

April 25, 2014

Democrats have attacked a trio of Republican Senate candidates for not being born in the states they seek to represent. While the issue could matter in a close race, there are four dozen senators who prove that birthplace isn’t necessarily a stumbling block to getting elected.

Why TV Airtime Reservations Are More Important Than Ever

April 21, 2014

It’s time to pay more attention to television ad reservations; they have become another critical way party strategists communicate without coordinating under campaign finance laws.

Ratings Change: California’s 26th District

April 18, 2014

When the Republican wave hit in 2010, it lost virtually all of its strength before it got to the West Coast. Most Democrats in competitive races west of the Rocky Mountains held on.

8 House Race Ratings Changes Boost GOP, Democrats

April 18, 2014

This week Rothenberg Political Report/Roll Call made ratings changes in eight congressional districts and confirmed our rating in a ninth — Wisconsin’s 6th District — after GOP Rep. Tom Petri announced his retirement.

Ratings Change: California’s 36th District

April 18, 2014

After Democrat Raul Ruiz defeated GOP Rep. Mary Bono Mack in California’s 36th District in 2012, Republican insiders immediately put this district toward the top of their target list.

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