Arkansas Senate Race

In a testament to just how steep Lincoln's path to victory is this cycle, a recent poll from the Arkansas News Bureau that showed her behind by 14 points was actually the best news the Senator has had on the polling front in months.

Several public polls over the summer showed Rep. John Boozman (R) ahead by anywhere from 17 to 31 points.

The race will likely tighten before Nov. 2, but Lincoln may simply be too far behind to have much hope of overtaking the Congressman.

Lincoln's path to victory wasn't made any easier by an expensive primary and runoff. It was a fight that put the moderate Senator at odds with much of her Democratic base, and it remains to be seen whether the wounds of that nasty contest have healed enough for Democrats to come out in force this fall.

Lincoln is working hard to frame Boozman as part of the radical wing of his party. But the four-term Congressman has brushed off the attacks and mostly avoided locking horns with Lincoln, a sure sign that he's running from a position of strength. When he has taken shots at Lincoln, it has mostly been to tie her to her more polarizing party leaders.

President Bill Clinton, who was a strong supporter of Lincoln in the primary, isn't done playing in the race. He continues to be a key fundraiser for Lincoln, and she'll need all the help she can get. That's because it remains to be seen whether the Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee will commit significant resources to a contest that even some Democratic insiders admit may already be too far gone.