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Updated Oct. 14, 2010
Don't expect McMahon to repeat his 2008 performance, where he trounced his Republican opponent and claimed the only Republican-held Congressional seat in New York City.
While he certainly has advantages, the political climate will work against him this year. Especially in this Staten Island district.
This is a seat that Republicans believe should be theirs. Sen. John McCain (R-Ariz.) won here by 2 points in the 2008 presidential primary, and President George W. Bush cruised to victory by 10 points the previous cycle.
McMahon will face Michael Grimm, a former FBI agent and security consultant who survived a late primary that bloodied his party.
The incumbent's own poll numbers show he's popular and in fairly decent shape. And he remains the top of the field when it comes to fundraising, but this seat is a target for national Republicans, who may spend some money in the race.
District Profile from Politics in America
The 13th District includes all of Staten Island (Richmond County) and a small portion of southwestern Brooklyn across the Verrazano-Narrows Bridge. More than two-thirds of the district's mostly white and upper-middle-class population lives on Staten Island.
Staten Island is by far the least ethnically diverse of New York's five boroughs and is 64 percent white. Hispanic and black populations live mostly in the borough's northeast. There is an Asian presence in some mid-island neighborhoods, and the district has a significant Arab population, as well. Staten Island University Hospital is a key employer, and retail, finance and insurance jobs provide work.
The Brooklyn part of the 13th extends from the Verrazano into Bay Ridge, Dyker Heights and part of Bensonhurst, before buttonhooking south of Cropsey Avenue and moving east to take in part of Gravesend.
The 13th has a large Italian-American population on both sides of the Verrazano, and the predominately Catholic community gives the district a socially conservative edge. Although it has been a GOP stronghold for 30 years, the district sent a one-term Democrat to the U.S. House in 2008. John McCain won a slim 51 percent of the 2008 presidential vote in the 13th, the only New York City district he carried.
Health care, retail, communications
Fort Hamilton (Army), 139 military, 399 civilian (2007)
New York (pt.), 686,525
The 1977 disco movie "Saturday Night Fever" was set in Bay Ridge.
|2010||general||Michael Grimm (R)||65,024||51.3%|
|Michael McMahon (D)||60,773||47.9%|
|Tom Venditteli (LIBERT)||929||0.7%|
|2008||general||Michael McMahon (D, WFM)||114,219||60.9%|
|Robert Straniere (R)||62,441||33.3%|
|Timothy Cochrane (C)||5,799||3.1%|
|Carmine Morano (INDC)||4,947||2.6%|
|2006||general||Vito Fossella (R, C, INDC)||59,334||56.8%|
|Stephen Harrison (D, WFM)||45,131||43.2%|
|2004||general||Vito Fossella (R, C)||112,934||59%|
|Frank Barbaro (D, INDC, WFM)||78,500||41%|
|2002||general||Vito Fossella (R, C, RTL)||72,204||69.6%|
|Arne Mattsson (D, L, WFM)||29,366||28.3%|
|Anita Lerman (INDC)||1,427||1.4%|
|Henry Bardel (GREEN)||696||0.7%|
|2008||Barack Obama: 49%||John McCain: 51%|
|2004||John Kerry: 45%||George W. Bush: 55%|
|2000||Al Gore: 53%||George W. Bush: 44%|