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CQ Politics rates this race as "Safe," meaning the incumbent party is virtually certain to win the seat.
District Profile from Politics in America
Traditionally a haven for retirees and tourists, the solidly Republican 14th features Gulf Coast beaches and golf courses. The district's population is centered in Lee County, where migration of families and young professionals from the North and from Florida's east coast have added to the mix. The 14th also takes in the coastal edge of Collier County and a small slice of Charlotte County.
The district's population boomed in the last decade and it is one of the nation's top 20 most-populous and fastest-growing congressional districts ahead of decennial remapping. Most residents live near the coast, between the shore and Interstate 75, which runs north and south through the district before turning east into the Everglades.
Originally a retirement community built on undeveloped rural land, Cape Coral began attracting young professionals with white-collar job opportunities, and many businesses relocated to the area. The city long relied on its service and home construction industries. Fort Myers' Florida Gulf Coast University, with its environmental and science programs, and the nearby Everglades help promote marine biology and an eco-tourism industry. Wealthier retirees live around Naples in Collier, where golf courses and high-rise condominiums are plentiful, and a decade of construction helped raise the tax base for the area.
A collapse of the housing market in Lee and Collier counties caused property values to plummet. The supply of residential units was based on growth patterns that have now stalled, and many homes are still vacant even as continued foreclosures lead to some home sales.
Small Democratic pockets exist within Lee County, but the 14th has the second-largest GOP voter-registration advantage in the state, and residents here regularly give Republican candidates large vote percentages. John McCain won the 2008 presidential vote here with 57 percent.
Tourism, health care, service
Cape Coral, 154,305; Lehigh Acres (unincorporated), 86,784; Fort Myers, 62,298
The J.N. "Ding" Darling National Wildlife Refuge on Sanibel Island, an area barrier island, hosts migratory birds in its mangrove forests.
|2010||general||Connie Mack (R)||188,341||68.6%|
|Jim Roach (D)||74,525||27.1%|
|William St. Claire (NPA)||11,825||4.3%|
|2008||general||Connie Mack (R)||224,602||59.4%|
|Robert Neeld (D)||93,590||24.8%|
|Burt Saunders (X)||54,750||14.5%|
|Jeff George (X)||4,949||1.3%|
|2006||general||Connie Mack (R)||151,615||64.4%|
|Robert Neeld (D)||83,920||35.6%|
|2004||general||Connie Mack (R)||226,662||67.6%|
|Robert Neeld (D)||108,672||32.4%|
|2002||general||Porter Goss (R)||unopposed|
|2008||Barack Obama: 42%||John McCain: 57%|
|2004||John Kerry: 38%||George W. Bush: 61%|
|2000||Al Gore: 38%||George W. Bush: 60%|