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CQ Politics rates this race as "Safe," meaning the incumbent party is virtually certain to win the seat.
District Profile from Politics in America
Occupying the western portion of the Panhandle -- wedged between Alabama and the Gulf of Mexico -- the 1st District stretches from Washington County north of Panama City to Pensacola and the Perdido River. Often dubbed "Lower Alabama," the 1st's Bible Belt culture is much closer to the Old South than to Florida's big cities.
A strong defense presence stabilizes the economy in the 1st, which is home to several large military bases. Eglin Air Force Base is the military's center for air-delivered weaponry. Eglin will be the training school for the contentious F-35 Joint Strike Fighter program, which could bring thousands of military, civilian and contractor jobs to the area. Naval Air Station Pensacola is the training base for all Navy, Marine Corps and Coast Guard aviators.
Tourism and the area's building boom created economic and population growth as condominiums and retirement communities popped up in previously rural areas. Big-ticket construction and military development have partially buoyed workers from collapses in the manufacturing and homebuilding sectors. Bucolic open spaces and the white-sand beaches of Emerald Coast towns such as Destin (a small part of which is in the 2nd) draw vacationers, and coastal tourism is recovering from a series of hurricanes and the 2010 Deepwater Horizon oil spill.
The 1st, even more conservative than its largest-in-the-state GOP registration edge would indicate, gave John McCain 67 percent of its 2008 presidential vote, his highest percentage statewide. The 1st's Democrats are more "Dixiecrat" than liberal, and the political ideology of the predominately white district is heavily influenced by the military.
Defense, tourism, health care
Naval Air Station Pensacola, 17,076 military, 4,067 civilian (2011); Hurlburt Field (Air Force), 7,404 military, 1,260 civilian (2009); Eglin Air Force Base, 7,283 military, 5,710 civilian; Naval Air Station Whiting Field, 705 military, 2,078 civilian (2011)
Pensacola, 51,923; Navarre (unincorporated), 31,378
The Blue Angels flight group is housed at Naval Air Station Pensacola.
|2010||general||Jeff Miller (R)||170,821||80%|
|Joe Cantrell (NPA)||23,250||10.9%|
|John Krause (NPA)||18,253||8.5%|
|Jim Bryan (WRI)||1,202||0.6%|
|2008||general||Jeff Miller (R)||232,559||70.2%|
|Jim Bryan (D)||98,797||29.8%|
|2006||general||Jeff Miller (R)||135,786||68.5%|
|Jeff Roberts (D)||62,340||31.5%|
|2004||general||Jeff Miller (R)||236,604||76.5%|
|Mark Coutu (D)||72,506||23.5%|
|2002||general||Jeff Miller (R)||152,635||74.6%|
|Bert Oram (D)||51,972||25.4%|
|Tom Wells (Write-In)||19||0%|
|2008||Barack Obama: 32%||John McCain: 67%|
|2004||John Kerry: 28%||George W. Bush: 72%|
|2000||Al Gore: 30%||George W. Bush: 67%|