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CQ Politics rates this race as "Safe," meaning the incumbent party is virtually certain to win the seat.
District Profile from Politics in America
The 52nd wraps around the east side of San Diego from Poway in the north to east of Otay Mesa in the south, and stretches about 100 miles further east and north through mountains and protected desert parks to reach San Diego County's borders with Riverside and Imperial counties. Most residents live in the predominately wealthy, conservative suburbs or the roughly 22 percent of San Diego that is in the district.
An economic downturn has affected suburban developments, where property values had been increasing for a decade. Poway, whose economic roots lie in agriculture, has a wealthier, more rural feel to it than the surrounding sprawl. Despite municipal budget uncertainty and some empty storefronts, the city has fared better than other areas in the region. Just outside of Poway is an expanse of evenly developed areas that includes part of Rancho Bernardo (shared with the 49th and 50th) and Scripps Ranch.
San Diego's large military- and defense-related workforce contributes to both the district's conservatism and its economy. Although most of the area's military bases are in the 53rd, many residents commute to nearby defense contracting jobs.
Changing demographics in the district over the past decade have resulted in a district that is now nearly one-fifth Hispanic. Blue- and white-collar workers alike tend to vote Republican and support GOP House members. Registered Republicans maintain a 12-percentage-point lead over Democrats here, and John McCain took 53 percent of the district's 2008 presidential vote.
Technology, manufacturing, defense
Marine Corps Air Station Miramar, 7,785 military, 664 civilian (2010) (shared with the 50th)
San Diego (pt.), 180,454; El Cajon, 99,478; La Mesa, 57,065; Santee, 53,413; Poway, 47,811
Members of the Unarius Academy of Science, based in El Cajon, believes UFOs will bring technologies that will rid human civilization of pollution and poverty.
|2010||general||Duncan Hunter (R)||139,460||63.1%|
|Ray Lutz (D)||70,870||32.1%|
|Michael Benoit (LIBERT)||10,732||4.8%|
|2008||general||Duncan Hunter (R)||160,724||56.4%|
|Mike Lumpkin (D)||111,051||38.9%|
|Michael Benoit (LIBERT)||13,316||4.7%|
|2006||general||Duncan Hunter (R)||123,696||64.6%|
|John Rinaldi (D)||61,208||32%|
|Michael Benoit (LIBERT)||6,465||3.4%|
|2004||general||Duncan Hunter (R)||187,799||69.2%|
|Brian Keliher (D)||74,857||27.6%|
|Michael Benoit (LIBERT)||8,782||3.2%|
|2002||general||Duncan Hunter (R)||118,561||70.2%|
|Peter Moore-Kochlacs (D)||43,526||25.8%|
|Michael Benoit (LIBERT)||6,923||4.1%|
|2008||Barack Obama: 45%||John McCain: 53.4%|
|2004||John Kerry: 38%||George W. Bush: 61%|
|2000||Al Gore: 38%||George W. Bush: 56%|