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CQ Politics rates this race as "Safe," meaning the incumbent party is virtually certain to win the seat.
District Profile from Politics in America
The vast 25th stretches from east-central California on the Nevada border south along the mountains and through Death Valley before crossing the Mojave Desert and San Bernardino County into densely populated northern suburban Los Angeles County.
The Antelope Valley desert due north of Los Angeles experienced rapid growth for decades, but home foreclosures, high unemployment rates and an economic downturn have stalled growth. The valley includes Lancaster (shared with the 22nd) and Palmdale, the commercial and transportation center for the high desert. Palmdale also has been a research, development and flight testing site for the aerospace industry and is home to major Lockheed Martin and Boeing facilities.
Most of the land in Inyo and Mono counties is government-owned, and a few towns rely on mining, agriculture and tourism. Suburban Santa Clarita Valley on the district's southwestern edge has manufacturing, aerospace and defense industries, but can struggle when there are fewer visitors to key regional employer Six Flags Magic Mountain in Valencia, which is expected to add three new roller coasters.
Historically Republican, a mix of upper-middle-class residents and more-conservative working-class whites supported Democrat Barack Obama by slightly more than 1 percentage point in the 2008 presidential election but backed GOP candidate Meg Whitman by nearly 10 percentage points in the 2010 gubernatorial race.
Tourism, aerospace, manufacturing, construction, military
Fort Irwin (Army), 4,572 military, 959 civilian; Edwards Air Force Base, 1,851 military, 3,741 civilian (2010) (shared with the 22nd); Naval Air Warfare Center Weapons Division, China Lake, 640 military, 4,204 civilian (2011) (shared with the 22nd); Marine Corps Logistics Base Barstow, 142 military, 1,958 civilian (2010)
Santa Clarita, 176,320; Palmdale, 152,750; Victorville, 115,903; Lancaster (pt.), 72,370; Adelanto, 31,765
Badwater Basin in Death Valley is the lowest point in North America.
|2010||general||Howard McKeon (R)||118,308||61.8%|
|Jackie Conaway (D)||73,028||38.2%|
|2008||general||Howard McKeon (R)||144,660||57.7%|
|Jackie Conaway (D)||105,929||42.3%|
|2006||general||Howard McKeon (R)||93,987||60%|
|Robert Rodriguez (D)||55,913||35.7%|
|David Erickson (LIBERT)||6,873||4.4%|
|2004||general||Howard McKeon (R)||145,575||64.4%|
|Fred Willoughby (D)||80,395||35.6%|
|2002||general||Howard McKeon (R)||80,775||65%|
|Robert Conaway (D)||38,674||31.1%|
|Frank Consolo (LIBERT)||4,887||3.9%|
|2008||Barack Obama: 49.4%||John McCain: 48.3%|
|2004||John Kerry: 40%||George W. Bush: 59%|
|2000||Al Gore: 40%||George W. Bush: 54%|