Rothenberg Archive

I Would Fly 5,000 Miles Just to Help You Get Elected

Rep. Edward J. Markey is getting widespread support from Massachusetts to Hawaii in his special-election bid for Senate in the Bay State. Wait, what? Hawaii?

A Good Test of Exactly How Screwed Up Washington Is

Once upon a time, on a very different planet and in a very different country, the farm bill was not among the more controversial things that Congress did.

RATINGS CHANGE: Virginia's 2nd District

When you’re 17 seats short of a majority in the House, it’s easy to say that every competitive district is a “must win” for Democrats. But Virginia’s 2nd District is a microcosm of Democratic difficulties.

RATINGS CHANGE: West Virginia's 3rd District

By the numbers, West Virginia’s 3rd District looks like a prime Republican takeover opportunity. Former Massachusetts Gov. Mitt Romney won the district with 65 percent in 2012. Sen. John McCain, R-Ariz., won it with 56 percent in 2008. And President George W. Bush took 53 percent in 2004.

It’s Never Too Early to Fight About Polls

Bickering over polls is a time-honored tradition in campaigns. But the latest exchange of surveys in Utah’s 4th District is not just an example of partisan pollsters getting very different results. It is also a reminder of the importance of polling methodology.

RATINGS CHANGE: California's 52nd District

Last year, Rep. Brian P. Bilbray lost re-election in California’s redrawn 52nd District, but GOP strategists are upbeat about their chances of taking it back just two years later.

RATINGS CHANGE: California's 31st District

It may look as if Democrats are seeking a creative new way to fumble away California’s 31st District, but they aren’t in as bad a shape as it might seem.

Was the Massachusetts Senate Special Ever a Tossup?

Minutes after Gabriel Gomez was declared the winner of his party’s special primary on the evening of April 30, I tweeted that Gomez’s victory assured that the Massachusetts Senate special election would be “interesting.” And it has been.

Whither the Competitive Open-Seat Race?

Open seats are supposed to be opportunities. Without longtime incumbents on the ballot, these districts should be easier to takeover. But six months into the 2014 cycle, that just isn’t the case on the House side.

Why Emasculating the Speaker Is Rarely a Good Idea

They’re at it again.

The Barn Jacket as a Secret Campaign Weapon

Election Day is still more than a year away, but Illinois Republican Bruce Rauner is already deploying a popular campaign weapon: the barn jacket.

Search for Anti-Mike Rounds Continues in South Dakota

Brad Pitt and Minnesota’s 8th District

Just the name, Stewart Mills III, sounds like a stereotypical Republican, but the shoulder-length hair is evidence that he might be a different type of GOP candidate.

When the Nation Has the Blahs ...

Is the nation suffering from a national case of hypochondria, or are Americans rightly worried about the country’s future?

Where Will the Millionaire Cattle Rancher Run in Nebraska?

A cattle rancher and a university president get into a Senate race. Sounds like the opening of a bad joke, but it could describe the new political terrain in Nebraska.

National Democrats Buy Airtime in Massachusetts Senate Special Election

Republican strategists who monitor media activity in Massachusetts say the Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee has purchased TV time, starting tomorrow, to help Rep. Edward J. Markey in the special election for Senate.

Pollster Breaches Thin Line in LA Mayoral Campaign

Politics is a rough-and-tumble business, with campaigns bringing whatever resources they can to the table. But are there limits to what consultants, particularly pollsters, should do for their clients?

Should Republicans Recruit a Candidate Against Their Own Incumbent?

Rep. Gary G. Miller, R-Calif., is one of Democrats’ top takeover targets in the House. But to hold his seat, GOP strategists might consider finding another Republican to run against him.

Two Democratic House Challengers Worth Watching

Democratic prospects of taking back the House in 2014 may be remote, but two Democratic congressional challengers I interviewed recently have the potential to knock off GOP incumbents next year. At the very least, their races are worth watching.