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Rothenberg Archive

For Some Candidates, Home Is Where the Opportunity Is

We all know that candidates and members don’t have to live in a House district in order to run or even represent that area. And I’ve written about a number of top-tier Democratic hopefuls this cycle who don’t live in the district where they are campaigning.

Victory Is in the Eye of the Beholder in New Jersey, Virginia and Alabama

Tuesday’s election results offer something for everyone.

New Jersey’s 3rd District Now Open, Now a Tossup

GOP Rep. Jon Runyan’s retirement takes New Jersey’s 3rd District from the outskirts of the competitive race conversation to close to the epicenter.

Correcting the (Politico) Record on Louisiana

I had to laugh when I saw the headline in the Nov. 4 paper edition of Politico: “Louisiana Key to GOP Senate Control.”

Two House Candidates Who Stumbled Over Simple Questions

Retired Air Force Col. Martha McSally is personable and engaging, and her 2,454-vote loss to Democratic Rep. Ron Barber in Arizona’s 2nd District in 2012 demonstrates that she has appeal as a congressional candidate.

Ratings Change: Nevada Governor

Sometimes political handicapping can be difficult — a life of agonizing over whether a race leans to one party or the other or is a genuine tossup. But there is one way to identify a “safe” race.

The Most Vulnerable Governor in the Country

There is still a year until the midterm election, but Pennsylvania Gov. Tom Corbett is in very serious jeopardy of losing re-election in 2014.

Ratings Change: New Hampshire Governor

New Hampshire could have two competitive contests next year, but the gubernatorial race isn’t likely to be one of them.

In Louisiana, Democrats Doth Protest Too Much

If you were a Democrat who thought the GOP was heading toward selecting a weak nominee incapable of beating Sen. Mary L. Landrieu, D-La., next year, would you tear down that damaged candidate, knowing that it might bring stronger hopefuls into the race? Or would you keep your mouth shut, so Republicans would nominate the sure loser?

6 Democratic House Candidates With Plenty of Potential

In this political environment, not having an extensive legislative record can be an asset. Not surprisingly then, three of six Democratic House candidates I interviewed recently have never before sought elective office, and a fourth was elected as a judge, not a legislator. (I will discuss a seventh Democratic hopeful, Martha Robertson, in a separate column.)

'The Political Middle Has Disappeared'

A terrific post-shutdown “after action report” by Bill McInturff of Public Opinion Strategies, who is one-half of the bipartisan polling team that conducts the NBC News/Wall Street Journal poll, includes one slide (No. 7) that I found particularly instructive.

The Most Important Election of 2014

So now we know.

Democrats Look for Mini-Wave in Arkansas in 2014

Barack Obama received just 39 percent of the vote in Arkansas in the last presidential race, but that’s not stopping Democratic optimism in the Razorback State in 2014.

From Family Tragedy to Congress Is a Difficult Trail

In 2007, William Petit survived a brutal home invasion in which his wife and two daughters were killed. Last year, Amar Kaleka’s father was killed in the shooting at a Sikh temple in Wisconsin. Now, both men are seriously considering running for office.

With Real Candidate, Dem Chances Improve in Michigan’s 7th District

Democrats failed to get a top-tier candidate against Rep. Tim Walberg, R-Mich., in 2012, and the congressman won re-election with 53 percent. This time around, Democrats are likely to nominate a spunky former legislator and make the 7th District a top target in 2014.

For GOP, the Damage Is Undeniable

The deal to open the government and raise the debt ceiling may be done, but the damage to the national Republican Party is considerable.

Is Cruz Causing a Democratic Wave? Maybe, but Don't Jump the Gun

Last week I observed that I hadn’t yet seen “compelling evidence” that a Democratic political wave could be developing. I can no longer say that after seeing the recently released NBC News/Wall Street Journal poll.

Can John Lewis Break Democrats’ Losing Streak in Montana?

While Democrats have controlled both Montana Senate seats since Jon Tester’s initial victory in 2006, and the party has had no trouble winning the governorship, the state’s at-large House district has been much more elusive. John Lewis hopes to break the streak.

Race Ratings Change: Young’s Retirement Creates More Competitive Contest

For those of us who follow congressional races for a living, Rep. C.W. Bill Young retirement rumors had become a running joke.

Pennsylvania House District Falls Out of Competitive Ranks for Now

It only took three years for Pennsylvania’s 12th District to go from a safe Democratic seat to a safe Republican seat.

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