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Rothenberg Archive

For Democrats, It’s All About (Years) After November

Politics is often about keeping one eye on today and another eye on tomorrow. That’s especially true for Democrats, who should not be completely disheartened about their party’s prospects.

You Can’t Make This Stuff Up — and It's Only January

Sometimes, it’s difficult to tell the difference between a real news story and something from The Onion.

The Christie Investigation: From Inquiry to Lynching?

The two key questions are obvious. What did New Jersey Gov. Chris Christie know, and when did he know it?

Rothenberg’s Dangerous Dozen Open House Seats

I wrote my first Dangerous Dozen open House seats column in this space 14 years ago, so I figured I might as well keep the streak going, though it isn’t nearly as impressive as Joe DiMaggio’s 56-game hitting streak.

The Race Democrats Can't Afford to Lose

It’s rare in politics that anything other than a presidential contest is viewed as a “must win” — but the special election in Florida’s 13th District falls into that category for Democrats.

Early TV Ads: Not New and Mostly a Waste of Money

By mid-December, more than $17.5 million had been spent on TV ads in just four Senate contests: in North Carolina ($8.3 million), Kentucky ($3.5 million), Arkansas ($3.4 million) and Louisiana ($2.3 million), according to a recent piece by Roll Call’s Kyle Trygstad.

Is Arkansas Really the Land of Opportunity for Democrats?

When we think of political battlegrounds, states like Ohio and Florida come to mind. But every so often, a small state becomes a partisan political battleground.

Awards for the Best and Worst of Politics in 2013

Yes, folks, it’s time again for my end-of-the-year awards. It’s been a weird year, but face it: Weird is the new normal in politics.

A Traditional Midterm Headache for Democrats

Democrats have had a nice run recently of interesting House recruits and new takeover opportunities resulting from open GOP seats. And yet, it probably won’t matter.

Open Your Mind to the Possibility of Another Midterm Mess for Democrats

Democrats might want to consider opening their minds to the potential of another midterm nightmare.

If Linda Lingle Could, Why Can’t Wendy Davis?

As longtime readers of this column know, voters in one-party states sometimes elect the nominee of the “wrong” party as governor. Today’s question is whether state Sen. Wendy Davis, a Democrat, has a fighting chance to win next year’s gubernatorial election in Texas, which remains a rock-solid Republican state.

The Most Competitive Race in West Virginia?

Democrats recruited West Virginia State Auditor Glen Gainer to run in the 1st District in the aftermath of the government shutdown. But the party’s best opportunity in the state might be in the 2nd District, with a candidate that some national strategists were wary of earlier this year.

GOP Dusts Off Old Playbook Against Sink in Florida Special Election

Next year’s special election in Florida’s 13th District is likely to be very competitive and expensive, but Republicans might be able to save some money on production costs by dusting off some old television ads and reusing them.

The Most Divided House District in New York

Last month I wrote about a handful of interesting Democratic House candidates I had recently interviewed, but I did not include Martha Robertson, who is challenging GOP Rep. Tom Reed in New York’s 23rd District.

23 of 25 Vulnerable Democrats Vote in Favor of Upton Bill

Virtually every House Democrat listed as vulnerable by Rothenberg Political Report/Roll Call voted for Republican Michigan Rep. Fred Upton’s Keep Your Health Plan Act.

Michigan Senate Seat No Longer Safe for Democrats

Republicans don’t need to win Michigan to get the majority in the Senate, but the Wolverine State could become a serious takeover target later next year.

Ratings Change: Nebraska's 2nd District

After seven unsuccessful attempts, Democrats believe 2014 will finally be the year they knock off Rep. Lee Terry, R-Neb.

A Critical Few Weeks for Democrats? It Could Get Worse

No wonder some Democratic strategists are nervous about the next few weeks.

Why Most Postmortems of Virginia's Gubernatorial Race Are Wrong

The dust has settled (mostly) from last week’s elections, so I thought it time to present a very different assessment of what happened in Virginia than the snapshot I’ve seen from others.

Buyer Beware: There Are Polls, and Then There Are Polls

Given the “success” (note sarcasm) of some polls in the Virginia gubernatorial race Tuesday, it might be worthwhile to note the very divergent surveys in the Texas gubernatorial race.

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