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Rothenberg Archive

The New World of Election Coverage and Analysis: A Case Study

My new statistical model of the open Wisconsin Senate seat suggests that Democrats now have only a 54.496 percent chance of holding the seat. Thatís a dramatic change from just three weeks ago, when my model showed them with a 55.501 percent chance.

And the Winner of the GOP’s Civil War Primary Is ...

Who is winning the primary campaign war within the GOP between pragmatic conservatives and the anti-establishment wing of the party?

Warning: Senate Races Aren't as Close as They Appear

Iíve noticed with some alarm how many people fail to make reasonable distinctions among races that admittedly have some factors in common.

Rothenberg: Obama's Foreign Policy Impacts 2014 Elections -- Really

No, I am not going to try to make the case that foreign policy will be at the forefront of this yearís elections, or that international issues are a high priority for most Americans. They arenít.

Obama's Foreign Policy Impacts 2014 Elections — Really

No, I am not going to try to make the case that foreign policy will be at the forefront of this yearís elections, or that international issues are a high priority for most Americans. They arenít.

How to Handicap a Campaign's Ground Game in 2014

This cycle, Democrats are counting heavily on registering new voters and turning out registered voters who otherwise donít bother to vote during midterm elections. Republicans are also putting more emphasis on voter contact programs.

Meet 3 Divergent House Candidates Worth Watching

While some observers of politics apparently are only interested in statistical models that predict electoral outcomes, I have always thought that candidates matter ó both during campaigns and, particularly, when the victorious arrive in Washington, D.C.

Senator Thad Cochran, Underdog?

Forget about Matt Bevinís challenge to Sen. Mitch McConnell in the Kentucky Republican primary or Milton Wolfís bid to knock off Kansas Sen. Pat Roberts in that stateís GOP contest. The Senate primary to watch is Mississippiís.

Democrats' Growing Problems With Independent Voters on the Senate Map

While the nationís (and news mediaís) focus on Malaysian Airlines flight 370 gave Democrats a couple of weeks to catch their collective breath, the 2014 election cycle continues to look increasingly dangerous for President Barack Obama and his party.

Another Cycle, Another Poll Memo About Florida’s 2nd District

Democratic memos about the partyís optimistic prospects in Floridaís 2nd district never die. They simply fade away until the next election cycle, when a new one miraculously surfaces.

Why Polls Still Show Democrats With Higher Marks Than Republicans

Political brands are important. If a candidate or political party has a damaged political brand, itís harder for them to sell themselves to voters. But sometimes a pollís top lines can be deceiving, so you need to look a little below the surface to understand what is going on.

Bill Clinton's Real Impact on the Kentucky Senate Race

The national mediaís reaction to former President Bill Clintonís recent trip to Kentucky to boost the Senate candidacy of Democratic Secretary of State Alison Lundergan Grimes was predictable.

There's No Good Time for the GOP on Immigration

GOP leaders on Capitol Hill apparently have already decided to punt rather than push ahead with their own immigration proposal, but that hasnít stopped the chatter from the sidelines, especially from those who donít like the leadershipís decision.

DCCC Is 2013 Fundraising Winner, but DNC Drops the Ball

A look at the end-of-the-year financial reports of the two House campaign committees, two Senate campaign committees and two national party committees makes it pretty clear which ones have something to crow about and which have some explaining to do.

For Democrats, It’s All About (Years) After November

Politics is often about keeping one eye on today and another eye on tomorrow. Thatís especially true for Democrats, who should not be completely disheartened about their partyís prospects.

You Can’t Make This Stuff Up — and It's Only January

Sometimes, itís difficult to tell the difference between a real news story and something from The Onion.

The Christie Investigation: From Inquiry to Lynching?

The two key questions are obvious. What did New Jersey Gov. Chris Christie know, and when did he know it?

Rothenberg’s Dangerous Dozen Open House Seats

I wrote my first Dangerous Dozen open House seats column in this space 14 years ago, so I figured I might as well keep the streak going, though it isnít nearly as impressive as Joe DiMaggioís 56-game hitting streak.

The Race Democrats Can't Afford to Lose

Itís rare in politics that anything other than a presidential contest is viewed as a ďmust winĒ ó but the special election in Floridaís 13th District falls into that category for Democrats.

Early TV Ads: Not New and Mostly a Waste of Money

By mid-December, more than $17.5 million had been spent on TV ads in just four Senate contests: in North Carolina ($8.3 million), Kentucky ($3.5 million), Arkansas ($3.4 million) and Louisiana ($2.3 million), according to a recent piece by Roll Callís Kyle Trygstad.

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