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Rothenberg Archive

The Most Competitive Race in West Virginia?

Democrats recruited West Virginia State Auditor Glen Gainer to run in the 1st District in the aftermath of the government shutdown. But the party’s best opportunity in the state might be in the 2nd District, with a candidate that some national strategists were wary of earlier this year.

GOP Dusts Off Old Playbook Against Sink in Florida Special Election

Next year’s special election in Florida’s 13th District is likely to be very competitive and expensive, but Republicans might be able to save some money on production costs by dusting off some old television ads and reusing them.

The Most Divided House District in New York

Last month I wrote about a handful of interesting Democratic House candidates I had recently interviewed, but I did not include Martha Robertson, who is challenging GOP Rep. Tom Reed in New York’s 23rd District.

23 of 25 Vulnerable Democrats Vote in Favor of Upton Bill

Virtually every House Democrat listed as vulnerable by Rothenberg Political Report/Roll Call voted for Republican Michigan Rep. Fred Upton’s Keep Your Health Plan Act.

Michigan Senate Seat No Longer Safe for Democrats

Republicans don’t need to win Michigan to get the majority in the Senate, but the Wolverine State could become a serious takeover target later next year.

Ratings Change: Nebraska's 2nd District

After seven unsuccessful attempts, Democrats believe 2014 will finally be the year they knock off Rep. Lee Terry, R-Neb.

A Critical Few Weeks for Democrats? It Could Get Worse

No wonder some Democratic strategists are nervous about the next few weeks.

Why Most Postmortems of Virginia's Gubernatorial Race Are Wrong

The dust has settled (mostly) from last week’s elections, so I thought it time to present a very different assessment of what happened in Virginia than the snapshot I’ve seen from others.

Buyer Beware: There Are Polls, and Then There Are Polls

Given the “success” (note sarcasm) of some polls in the Virginia gubernatorial race Tuesday, it might be worthwhile to note the very divergent surveys in the Texas gubernatorial race.

For Some Candidates, Home Is Where the Opportunity Is

We all know that candidates and members don’t have to live in a House district in order to run or even represent that area. And I’ve written about a number of top-tier Democratic hopefuls this cycle who don’t live in the district where they are campaigning.

Victory Is in the Eye of the Beholder in New Jersey, Virginia and Alabama

Tuesday’s election results offer something for everyone.

New Jersey’s 3rd District Now Open, Now a Tossup

GOP Rep. Jon Runyan’s retirement takes New Jersey’s 3rd District from the outskirts of the competitive race conversation to close to the epicenter.

Correcting the (Politico) Record on Louisiana

I had to laugh when I saw the headline in the Nov. 4 paper edition of Politico: “Louisiana Key to GOP Senate Control.”

Two House Candidates Who Stumbled Over Simple Questions

Retired Air Force Col. Martha McSally is personable and engaging, and her 2,454-vote loss to Democratic Rep. Ron Barber in Arizona’s 2nd District in 2012 demonstrates that she has appeal as a congressional candidate.

Ratings Change: Nevada Governor

Sometimes political handicapping can be difficult — a life of agonizing over whether a race leans to one party or the other or is a genuine tossup. But there is one way to identify a “safe” race.

The Most Vulnerable Governor in the Country

There is still a year until the midterm election, but Pennsylvania Gov. Tom Corbett is in very serious jeopardy of losing re-election in 2014.

Ratings Change: New Hampshire Governor

New Hampshire could have two competitive contests next year, but the gubernatorial race isn’t likely to be one of them.

In Louisiana, Democrats Doth Protest Too Much

If you were a Democrat who thought the GOP was heading toward selecting a weak nominee incapable of beating Sen. Mary L. Landrieu, D-La., next year, would you tear down that damaged candidate, knowing that it might bring stronger hopefuls into the race? Or would you keep your mouth shut, so Republicans would nominate the sure loser?

6 Democratic House Candidates With Plenty of Potential

In this political environment, not having an extensive legislative record can be an asset. Not surprisingly then, three of six Democratic House candidates I interviewed recently have never before sought elective office, and a fourth was elected as a judge, not a legislator. (I will discuss a seventh Democratic hopeful, Martha Robertson, in a separate column.)

'The Political Middle Has Disappeared'

A terrific post-shutdown “after action report” by Bill McInturff of Public Opinion Strategies, who is one-half of the bipartisan polling team that conducts the NBC News/Wall Street Journal poll, includes one slide (No. 7) that I found particularly instructive.

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