Politics

Democratic Poll: Kevin Yoder's Lead Is Within Margin of Error

Democratic recruit Jay Sidie trails by 4 points in Kansas's 3rd District

Kansas Rep. Kevin Yoder leads his Democratic challenger Jay Sidie by 4 points in a poll commissioned by the DCCC’s independent expenditure arm. (Bill Clark/CQ Roll Call fIle photo)

Democratic recruit Jay Sidie trails three-term Republican Rep. Kevin Yoder by 4 points in a Democratic poll of Kansas’ 3rd District. 

Yoder led with 44 percent to Sidie’s 40 percent. Libertarian candidate Steve Hohe took 9 percent. 

Democrat Hillary Clinton led her Republican rival Donald Trump 52 to 42 percent in the district, according to the poll, with most of the interviews conducted before revelations of a 2005 video in which Trump bragged about sexually assaulting women. 

[Democrats Believe Long Shots Can Deliver a House Majority]

Polling firm Garin-Hart-Yang surveyed 456 likely voters from Oct. 5-8 on cell and landlines. The poll was conducted on behalf of the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee’s independent expenditure arm and had a margin of error of 4.6 percentage points. 

“This is a partisan push poll and anyone worth their salt isn’t taking this seriously,” Yoder campaign manager Cate Duerst said in response to the poll.

The Garin-Hart-Yang poll is not a push poll

The Yoder campaign has not released an internal poll since an Aug. 11 survey which showed the congressman leading Sidie 53 to 36 percent. Yoder was also over-performing Trump, who trailed Clinton 38 to 44 percent.  

[Democrats Look to Make Inroads in Kansas]

Democrats’ strategy for maximizing gains in the House is to target red districts like this one that are suburban and well-educated. Mitt Romney carried this district by 10 points in 2012, and Yoder won his last re-election contest by 20 points. But John McCain carried the district by just 1 point in 2008. And Democrat Dennis Moore represented the district for 12 years before Yoder. 

Sidie has been tying the incumbent to the unpopular education cuts supported by the state's GOP Gov. Sam Brownback. Yoder released an ad Tuesday attacking Sidie for being an “unlicensed and unregistered financial adviser.”

An internal poll from the Sidie campaign from late August showed him trailing Yoder 37 to 49 percent, with Hohe taking 8 percent. Clinton led Trump 45 to 31 in that poll, which was conducted from August 28-30. 

The Rothenberg & Gonzales Political Report/Roll Call rates this seat Safe Republican

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