Arkansas Sen. Mark Pryor led his Republican challenger by 2 points in a recent Democratic poll, which is the third survey on the race released in the last two days.
The polling memo, obtained by CQ Roll Call, stated Pryor led by a 48-46 percent margin, with 6 percent undecided — a lead within the 4-point margin of error. The survey included a sample of 600 likely voters and was conducted July 20-24 by Democratic firm Anzalone Liszt Grove Research, which counts as a client the Arkansas gubernatorial campaign of former Rep. Mike Ross.
The memo comes one day after the Pryor campaign released an internal poll (taken July 7-10) showing him ahead 45-39 percent and an independent poll from Talk Business & Politics-Hendrix College (taken July 22-25) found Cotton up 44-42 percent. Pryor and Cotton are in one of the closest races of the cycle for a seat Republicans are counting on in their quest for the Senate majority.
Few details on the latest poll were included in the memo. The Libertarian and Green party candidates were not included. The memo did break down the undecided vote, noting Pryor had a higher favorable rating among the voters who still haven't picked a side (33 percent favorable and 32 percent unfavorable for Pryor, 17 percent favorable and 27 percent unfavorable for Cotton).
Polling has been all over the map in this race. Several Republican polls in May and June showed Cotton up by significant single-digit margins, while a couple nonpartisan surveys found Pryor up by double-digit margins.
Democrats say they've never had an internal poll show Cotton with a lead.
The race is rated Tilts Republican by the Rothenberg Political Report/Roll Call.