Dec. 19, 2014

Election Preview: March 2012

With primary season kicking off and redistricting wrapping up, this issue contains our state-by-state analysis of the battle for control of Congress. Republicans need to net four seats to gain the Senate majority. House Democrats need a net gain of 25 seats to reclaim the Speaker’s gavel.

Senate Overview: Danger — Primaries Ahead

College basketball and the dawn of spring are hardly the only highlights of March. Congressional primaries are now in full swing, and the outcomes of key races could decide control of the Senate in November.


 Senate Ratings Map

House Overview: Redistricting’s Bottom Line

Writing an analysis calculating the final result of redistricting is a little like putting a sign on your back that reads “kick me.” No matter how methodical and dispassionate you try to be, you are forced to make plenty of subjective judgments, guaranteeing that you will be second-guessed by just about everyone.

House Ratings Map

Top 10 Vulnerable: Targets on Their Backs

In our November Election Preview, we wrote that we expected several Members on this list wouldn’t make the next one because of retirements. Sure enough, Reps. Heath Shuler (D-N.C.), Dan Burton (R-Ind.) and David Dreier (R-Calif.) all decided to call it quits.

Casualty List | Congressional Primary Calendar

New England Region Roundup

Connecticut, Maine, Massachusetts, New Hampshire, Rhode Island and Vermont

Mid-Atlantic Region Roundup

Delaware, Maryland, New Jersey, New York, Pennsylvania and West Virginia

South Region Roundup

Alabama, Arkansas, Florida, Georgia, Kentucky, Louisiana, Mississippi, North Carolina, South Carolina, Tennessee and Virginia

Midwest Region Roundup

Illinois, Indiana, Michigan, Minnesota, Ohio and Wisconsin

Plains Region Roundup

Iowa, Kansas, Missouri, Nebraska, North Dakota and South Dakota

Southwest Region Roundup

Arizona, New Mexico, Oklahoma and Texas

Mountain Region Roundup

Colorado, Idaho, Montana, Utah and Wyoming

West Region Roundup

Alaska, California, Hawaii, Nevada, Oregon and Washington