How Many Might Defect from Trump or Cruz?
It isn't only about new voters

Both Ted Cruz, above, and Donald Trump say their message has brought new voters into the Republican Party. But the message could also chase some away. (Al Drago/CQ Roll Call file photo)

There has been plenty of talk from the two leading Republican presidential contenders about how they will attract voters who didn’t embrace recent GOP nominees.

For Ted Cruz, his pool of new voters supposedly includes conservatives who didn’t bother to vote because they saw few differences between the parties. Donald Trump, on the other hand, promises to energize working-class voters who've been left behind.