Trent Franks

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Rep. Trent Franks resigned in December amid allegations that he sexually harassed female staffers. Next week, no matter which party wins the race to replace the Arizona Republican, a woman will be elected to succeed him.

The April 24 special election in the 8th District pits former GOP state Sen. Debbie Lesko against Democrat Hiral Tipirneni, a cancer research advocate and former emergency room physician. The two could also meet again in November since both intend to file to run for a full term.

It is months away from November 2018, but that doesn’t stop predictions not only for the midterms but also for President Donald Trump’s re-election chances in 2020. But while the world of politics is preoccupied with whether a blue wave is inevitable or a figment of hopeful Democrats’ imagination, events outside the bubble might shift the electorate in unpredictable ways.

My Roll Call colleague Walter Shapiro explains, with examples from recent history, how politically fraught these pre-election prognostications can be. It’s also wise to remember how life and politics can be determined by “moments,” despite what consultants who make a living steering candidates and campaigns may say. And right now, America is in the middle of moments that could challenge conventional electoral wisdom.

Democrat Conor Lamb of Pennsylvania took his oath of office as a member of the House a little after 5:30 p.m., on Thursday.

“The essential truth of our situation is, we are all in this together. We need solidarity with each other. We need universal programs and aspirations. And we need to honor the service of our fellow citizens. I will do my level best to reach out, to find common ground, and to help this great American institution deliver the results we need and deserve,” Lamb said on the floor after being sworn in. 

Just 13 days before Arizona’s 8th Congressional District holds its special election to send a new member to the House, the Democratic candidate there is warding off political volleys regarding her time as an emergency room doctor.

Hiral Tipirneni, who won the Democratic nomination in February to replace disgraced former Rep. Trent Franks, is under siege by Republican operatives pushing the narrative that she has been dodgy with voters about her medical career.

Congress returns Monday after two weeks away, but much of the focus will be on the action outside the House and Senate chambers.

The highlight of the week will be hearings with Facebook CEO Mark Zuckerberg amid the ongoing fallout from the social media giant’s admission that user data was improperly shared with political consulting firm Cambridge Analytica.

Welcome back to Political Theater, Roll Call’s newsletter and podcast on the spectacle of politics and how it fits, or doesn’t, into the nation’s culture. Subscribe to our weekly newsletter here.

HULU’s new mini-series “The Looming Tower” traces the rising threat of al-Qaida in the runup to the 9/11 attacks and is adapted from Lawrence Wright’s Pulitzer Prize-winning book.

It might look like Republicans dodged a disaster in Arizona’s 8th District, considering former state Sen. Steve Montenegro didn’t win Tuesday’s primary. But as we’ve written before, Republicans seem to find new ways to make these special elections competitive, and Democrats everywhere are excited to send a message to President Donald Trump.

Unlike Montenegro, former state Sen. Debbie Lesko, the GOP nominee, has not received a topless photo from a staffer. But she has been accused of violating campaign finance rules by illegally funneling state funds to a federal race.

Former Republican state Sen. Debbie Lesko has won the special election primary in Arizona’s 8th District in the race to replace Rep. Trent Franks, who resigned amid sexual harassment allegations.

With 100 percent of precincts reporting Tuesday night, Lesko finished first with 36 percent of the vote, The Associated Press reported. Her nearest challengers, former state Rep. Phil Lovas and former state Sen. Steve Montenegro, trailed with 24 percent each. Lesko is in a strong position heading into the April 24 general election against Democrat Hiral Tipirneni in a district President Donald Trump carried by 21 points.