NY-24

DCCC Targets Trump Districts in 2018
Democrats are banking on Trump being unpopular in even deep-red seats

New York Rep. Chris Collins, one of President Donald Trumps biggest House allies, is a 2018 Democratic target. (Bill Clark/CQ Roll Call)

Fresh off the second weekend of nationwide protests against President Donald Trump, the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee has released its initial list of Republican-held seats it plans to target in 2018.

The House Democrats’ campaign arm is banking on Trump’s unpopularity being a drag on down-ballot Republicans, even though many GOP incumbents proved resilient to efforts to tie them to Trump in 2016. Democrats gained a net of six seats last November.

Republican Rep. John Katko Prevails in New York's 24th District
Freshman congressman had been considered vulnerable

New York Rep. John Katko has successfully won his bid for re-election. (Tom Williams/CQ Roll Call file photo)

Republican Rep. John Katko successfully defended his seat in New York’s 24th District, The Associated Press projects.

Katko led Democrat Colleen Deacon 62 percent to 38 percent with 55 percent of precincts  reporting.

How Many House Seats Will Democrats Pick Up? Watch These Districts
Certain district types may provide early clues

Democrats need to knock off Republicans who sit in seats President Barack Obama won, like Maine Rep. Bruce Poliquin, R-Maine, center, and Frank Guinta, R-N.H., right. Defeating Rep. Scott Tipton, R-Colo., would suggest more of a wave. (Tom Williams/CQ Roll Call)

Not all districts are created equal. They all count the same when adding for a majority, but victories in one type of district may portend a much better night for Democrats than in others. With just four days to go until Election Day, Democrats almost surely won’t gain the 30 seats needed for a House majority on Tuesday. But they will make some gains. Here’s where to watch for early clues as to just how big or small Democratic gains will be.

To achieve double-digit gains, Democrats must win the known battlegrounds. These are the districts that always were going to be competitive, and where presidential year turnout usually gives Democrats an advantage. At the very least, Democrats need to win the districts that President Barack Obama carried — places like Illinois’ 10th District, Nevada’s 4th and 3rd Districts, Maine’s 2nd District, Florida’s 26th District, (which is now even more Democratic), Iowa’s 1st District and New York’s 19th District. If they’re not able to win these seats, Democratic gains in the House will likely be very minimal.  

Ratings Change: 7 House Races Shift Toward Democrats
But one change toward Republicans isn’t particularly good news for majority chances

California Rep. Jeff Denham faces a competitive re-election fight with less than two weeks before Nov. 8. (Bill Clark/CQ Roll Call file photo)

When nearly 90 percent of the batch of House ratings changes are in your favor, it’s normally great news. But with a limited House playing field, Democrats need to win virtually all of the competitive seats, and some initial takeover targets look like they are slipping out of reach.

In the most recent set of ratings changes by The Rothenberg & Gonzales Political Report/Roll Call, seven races shift toward the Democrats. Takeover prospects improved in a couple of California districts (the 10th and 49th), a couple of districts with weakened GOP incumbents (Florida’s 7th and New Jersey’s 5th), and two suburban districts (Kansas’ 3rd and Pennsylvania’s 8th).

Poll: No Sign of a Democratic Wave in New York House Race
Republican John Katko overperforms Trump by 20 points

Rep. John Katko, R-N.Y., led Democratic challenger Colleen Deacon in a Democratic district in a new Siena College poll. (Tom Williams/CQ Roll Call file photo)

Democrats’ road to a House majority could have run through New York, but with freshman GOP Rep. John Katko expanding his lead in the 24th District, picking up a handful of seats in the Empire State looks harder.

Katko led Democrat Colleen Deacon by 23 points, 54 percent to 31 percent, in a Time Warner Cable News/Siena College poll released Thursday. That’s a jump from the 19-point lead the GOP congressman held three weeks ago. 

Poll: Katko Holds Sizable Lead Over Democratic Challenger
Incumbent Republican up big in New York district won easily by Obama

New York Republican Rep. John Katko holds a 19-point lead over Democratic challenger Colleen Deacon. (Tom Williams/CQ Roll Call file photo)

New York Rep. John Katko holds a significant lead over his Democratic opponent and is actually outperforming Hillary Clinton in his upstate House race, according to a new poll.

The Time Warner Cable News/Siena College poll found Katko with a 19-point lead over Democrat Colleen Deacon, 53 percent to 34 percent. Furthermore, the freshman congressman draws support from 28 percent of Democrats in the district, while only 13 percent of the district's Republicans back Deacon. 

Ratings Changes in 12 Competitive House Races
6 races shift toward Democrats but 6 improve for Republicans

Iowa Rep. David Young's' re-election contest in the state's 3rd District moves from Tossup to Tilts Republican, according to The Rothenberg & Gonzales Political Report/Roll Call's latest race rating. (Tom Williams/CQ Roll Call file photo)

With five weeks to go before Election Day, Democrats are still waiting for Donald Trump to create the nationwide swell that would be necessary to put the Republicans’ House majority into play. House races are often late to engage but, thus far, the developments have been a mixed bag for Democrats, keeping sizable gains out of reach.

The lack of vulnerable Democrats — and the resiliency of many Republican incumbents in the face of an unpopular presidential nominee — could amount to a historic election in the House, but not in the way one might think. The cycle could produce the fewest number of House seats to flip party control in 60 years.

New York Could Hold Key to Democratic Majority in House
Tuesday's primaries are first hurdle in flipping competitive seats

New York Republican Rep. John Katko is one of the Democrats' top targets this year. (Bill Clark/CQ Roll Call file photo)

Democrats are in a New York State of mind. 

Their party must pick up 30 seats to win control of the House, and to even come close, they need to sweep all or most of the competitive New York seats.

‘14 Losers Looking for Second Chance in ‘16
A dozen House candidates hoping to turn narrow losses into future victories

Illinois Democrat Brad Schneider is running against Rep. Robert Dold to reclaim his old seat. (Tom Williams/CQ Roll Call file photo)

In sports and in politics, losing by a little can be harder than losing by a lot. At least a dozen 2016 candidates are hoping that their close calls in 2014 were more than a mirage of a missed opportunity.  

California Republican Paul Chabot could barely get national GOP strategists to acknowledge his existence last cycle when he lost to Democrat Pete Aguilar, 52-48 percent, in the 31st District open-seat race.  

Former Gillibrand Aide Joins Race to Challenge John Katko

Katko is a top target for Democrats in 2016. (Photo By Bill Clark/CQ Roll Call)

Colleen Deacon, a New York-based aide for Sen. Kirsten Gillibrand, D-N.Y., until a month ago, has entered the Democratic primary to challenge Republican Rep. John Katko in New York’s competitive 24th District.  

On Thursday, Deacon filed her paperwork with the Federal Election Commission — joining Syracuse University Professor Eric Kingson who launched his own campaign this summer for the party's nomination.  “I have seen — up close and personal — how the issues in front of Congress affect real people’s lives, and I want to be a real voice for Central New York,” Deacon said in a statement posted on her website.