polling

The Political Class Got 2016 Wrong. Could We See a Repeat?
What’s possible is sometimes more important than what’s probable

The difference between what was probable and what was possible in 2016 was the difference between a President Clinton and a President Trump, Winston writes. (Meredith Dake-O'Connor/CQ Roll Call file photo)

“The world is full of obvious things which nobody by any chance ever observes.”

So said Sherlock Holmes in “The Hound of the Baskervilles,” and the great detective’s observation may well apply to the upcoming midterm elections.

GOP Poll Shows Close Race for Rod Blum in Iowa’s 1st District
Republican incumbent is still 2 points behind Democrat Abby Finkenauer

Rep. Rod Blum, R-Iowa, is facing a competitive re-election race in Iowa’s 1st District against Democratic state Rep. Abby Finkenauer. (Bill Clark/CQ Roll Call file photo)

An internal poll for Rep. Rod Blum has found the vulnerable Iowa Republican narrowly trailing Democratic state Rep. Abby Finkenauer in the 1st District.

The poll, conducted by The Polling Company, showed Finkenauer leading Blum 45 percent to 43 percent, within the 4.9 percentage-point margin of error. Four percent of respondents backed a third-party candidate, while 6 percent were undecided. 

Trump to Headline Rally for Sen. Ted Cruz in Texas Ahead of Midterms
Dem opponent O’Rourke is mounting one of most expensive campaigns in history to unseat Cruz

President Donald Trump will rally for Sen. Ted Cruz, R-Texas, next Monday, Oct. 22. (George LeVines/CQ Roll Call file photo)

President Donald Trump will rally Texans for Sen. Ted Cruz in Houston next Monday, Oct. 22, as Cruz’s race with Democratic Rep. Beto O'Rourke enters the home stretch before the Nov. 6 midterm elections there.

Trump had promised in August to campaign on Cruz’s behalf, a promise Cruz heartily welcomed.

Indicted Rep. Chris Collins Limping to Finish Line in Poll, Fundraising
N.Y. Republican raised just $80 from individuals within the 27th District in 3rd quarter

Rep. Chris Collins, R-N.Y., raised just $80 from individual contributors in his district in the third filing quarter of 2018. (Tom Williams/CQ Roll Call)

New York Rep. Chris Collins has seen his lead over his Democratic opponent dwindle and individual contributions to his campaign vanish since he was indicted in August on insider trading charges stemming from his investment in an Australian biotech company.

The Buffalo-area Republican collected just $33,000 in campaign contributions in the third filing quarter, according to a Federal Elections Commission summary of his receipts.

Democrats Double Down After Eight Years Defending Health Care Law
Issue now tops for Democrats in 2018, report finds

The U.S. Capitol building is seen behind two ambulances Friday, June 15, 2018. (Bill Clark/CQ Roll Call file photo)

Democrats have devoted half their advertising spending in midterm races to health care, according to a report released Monday from a left-leaning group that seeks to protect provisions of Barack Obama’s signature 2010 law. 

The survey of recent polling and advertising spending from Protect Our Care underscore a theme that has emerged across the country as Democrats attempt to shift the narrative on 2010 health care law. After eight years of fending off GOP attempts to “repeal and replace” the provisions of Obamacare, Democrats now see their support of the law as one of their biggest strengths. 

Trump PAC Spends More Defending Texas House Seat Than Any Race This Cycle
America First Action has spent $2.6 million to help longtime GOP Rep. Pete Sessions keep his seat

Rep. Pete Sessions, R-Texas, speaks with reporters as he leaves the House Republican Conference meeting in the Capitol on Tuesday, Jan. 9, 2018. (Bill Clark/CQ Roll Call)

The top super PAC aligned with President Donald Trump is releasing another ad Tuesday in Texas’ 32nd District, where longtime GOP Rep. Pete Sessions is facing arguably his toughest test for re-election yet against Democrat Colin Allred.

America First Action, the super PAC promoting candidates who support the president’s agenda, has sunk $2.6 million into defending Sessions’ seat. That’s the most the PAC has spent on any race this cycle.

Beto O’Rourke Smashes Senate Race Fundraising Record with Nearly $40 Million Haul
Previous single-quarter record set by New York Republican Rick Lazio in 2000

Democratic candidate for U.S. Senate from Texas Rep. Beto O'Rourke raised a record $38.1 million in the third quarter of 2018. (Bill Clark/CQ Roll Call)

Texas Democratic Senate candidate Rep. Beto O’Rourke raised a record $38.1 million in the third quarter, the campaign announced Friday, nearly tripling his overall fundraising haul for the cycle.

The blockbuster quarter surpasses the record for the largest fundraising quarter ever in a U.S. Senate race — set by Rick Lazio in his race against Hillary Clinton in New York in 2000.

MacArthur Narrowly Ahead in New Jersey’s 3rd District, Poll Shows
After easily winning re-election in 2016, two-term incumbent faces close contest

GOP Rep. Tom MacArthur was ahead by 4 points in his campaign’s polling of New Jersey’s 3rd District. (Bill Clark/CQ Roll Call file photo)

New Jersey Rep. Tom MacArthur narrowly led his Democratic opponent in the Republican campaign’s polling of the 3rd District.

MacArthur led Andy Kim 44 to 40 percent in the survey from National Research Inc. Kim was a National Security Council staffer under former President Barack Obama

GOP Yanks Ad Spending for Marquez Peterson in Arizona
Vague debate answer on climate change drew crowd reactions

Former Democratic Rep. Ann Kirkpatrick is running in Arizona’s 2nd District. (Bill Clark/CQ Roll Call file photo)

The National Republican Congressional Committee will halt television ad spending in Arizona’s 2nd District days after the party’s candidate stumbled during a debate.

During the race’s only debate Tuesday, Lea Marquez Peterson drew guffaws for a vague answer on whether she believes in climate change, the Arizona Republic reported. Marquez Peterson trailed Democratic opponent, former U.S. Rep. Ann Kirkpatrick, by 11 points in a recent New York Times/Siena College poll.

Beto O’Rourke’s Momentum Appears Stalled, New Poll Shows
New Quinnipiac poll is second in a row to show Democrat trailing Sen. Ted Cruz by 9 points

Texas Republican Sen. Ted Cruz had a 9-point edge over Democratic opponent Rep. Beto O’Rourke in a new poll Thursday. (Bill Clark/CQ Roll Call file photo)

Despite a viral video defending athletes who kneel during the national anthem to protest racial inequality, national buzz about his former punk rock career, and a slew of positive profiles in major media publications, Rep. Beto O’Rourke trailed GOP Sen. Ted Cruz by nearly double digits in a new poll released Thursday.

Cruz, who is seeking a second term in the Senate, outpaced O’Rourke by a 54-45 margin among 730 likely voters in the state in a new poll conducted by Quinnipiac University.