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Democrats Might 'Roll the Dice’ Hoping Trump or Cruz is on Ballot

Democrats think a Trump or Cruz nomination could help them turn Kentucky Rep. Andy Barr's seat blue again. But time is running out. (Bill Clark/CQ Roll Call File Photo)

Democrats are optimistic that a Donald Trump or Texas Sen. Ted Cruz nomination will expand the map in their favor. But because of how long the GOP nominating contest could take, and how early some congressional filing deadlines are, Democrats may need to take a leap of faith on candidates before they know whether the GOP nominee will put certain states in play.  

"I’m telling potential candidates, 'There’s a chance that our party is going to win the lottery. ... It might be worth rolling the dice because it turns out the Democratic nominee in some of these states that are not competitive right now may be worth a lot,'" one Democratic consultant said.  

EMILY's List Targets 15 Republicans for 2016

Schriock is the president of EMILY's List. (Bill Clark/CQ Roll Call File Photo)

EMILY's List put 15 GOP incumbents "On Notice" for their re-election bids Monday, naming its top GOP targets for 2016, according to a release provided first to CQ Roll Call.  

The group, which backs women who support abortion rights, says each incumbent has a bad record on women's health issues, and will make it a priority to find female recruits to challenge them next fall. The list is almost identical to the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee's top targets in 2016, when the party will seek to put a dent in Republicans' historic House majority.  

Exclusive: NRCC Adds 8 More Vulnerable Members to Patriot Program

Walden is the chairman of the NRCC. (Bill Clark/CQ Roll Call File Photo)

The National Republican Congressional Committee added eight more members to its Patriot program Friday, according to a list provided first to CQ Roll Call.  

The program provides fundraising and organizational support to the GOP Caucus' most vulnerable incumbents. Democrats are targeting these members in 2016, when the party will look to make a dent in the House Republican majority.  

DCCC Robocalls Target GOP on DHS Funding

Luján is chairman of the DCCC. (Bill Clark/CQ Roll Call File Photo)

The Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee will launch robocalls against more than two dozen House Republicans Tuesday over the Department of Homeland Security funding flap , according to a script of the call provided first to CQ Roll Call.  

Many of the 29 targeted Republicans represent districts atop the DCCC's list of pick up opportunities in 2016. Democrats must net 30 seats to win control of the House.  

Are These 10 Vulnerable Members Lucky or Good?

Sinema is running for re-election in a competitive district in Arizona. (Bill Clark/CQ Roll Call File Photo)

All's fair in love and ... House races? Not so much.  

Less than three weeks before Election Day, would-be safe incumbents such as Reps. Lee Terry, R-Neb., and Brad Schneider, D-Ill., are scrambling to win in partisan districts — while these 10 members are headed for victory in otherwise competitive districts.  

The 9 Biggest Candidate Flameouts

Walsh will not run for re-election to a full term. (Bill Clark/CQ Roll Call File Photo)

Meet the cycle’s biggest candidate disappointments.  

They are the congressional hopefuls who just didn't live up to their hype. Once touted as top recruits, these House and Senate candidates are headed for defeat on Election Day in all likelihood. Some of these candidates tanked so early in the cycle, their races never got off the ground.  

6 Gubernatorial Races With Potential Congressional Consequences

Barber is running as a Democrat in Arizona, where there is a competitive gubernatorial race. (Bill Clark/CQ Roll Call File Photo)

The lines separating gubernatorial and congressional candidates on the ballot could blur in several states this cycle, as the top of the ticket proves to be a driving force downballot in a half-dozen states.  

Typically, competitive gubernatorial races impact one key factor for victory: turnout. As a result, state parties ramp up their efforts to turn out their base, which could also boost candidates all over the ballot, including congressional races.  

DCCC Cuts Airtime in 8 TV Markets

Steve Israel of New York is the DCCC Chariman. (CQ Roll Call File Photo)

The Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee has started to pull back its advertising buys in several congressional districts around the country, according to an aide.  

At this point in the cycle, the cancellations — also known as "triage " — serve as a signal the party does not see a path to victory for these candidates or races. House Majority PAC, a Democratic super PAC, has already pulled some of its buys in the same districts.  

Democratic Super PAC Cuts More Ad Time in House Races (Updated)

Sinema is a freshman Democrat form Arizona. (Bill Clark/CQ Roll Call)

Updated Thursday, 2:03 p.m. | House Majority PAC, a super PAC that aids House Democrats, has recently canceled around $1 million in ad reservations in races throughout the Midwest and Northeast.  

The shifts indicate Democrats are more optimistic about winning some House races — and have given up hope on others.  

Poll: Davis Holds Large Lead in Top Illinois Contest

Davis greets Illinois Comptroller Judy Baar Topinka at Republican Day during the Illinois State Fair in Springfield. (Tom Williams/CQ Roll Call File Photo)

Freshman Rep. Rodney Davis, R-Ill., a top Democratic target this cycle, had a 19-point lead over his opponent with six weeks to go until Election Day, according to a poll conducted for his campaign and provided first to CQ Roll Call.  

Davis led Democratic rival Ann Callis, 55 percent to 36 percent, in the survey of the 13th District conducted by the GOP firm Public Opinion Strategies. Just 7 percent of voters were undecided.