hawaii

A month ago, I wrote about “6 Races Both Parties View Completely Differently .” These were a half-dozen contests where strategists generally disagreed on the shape and trajectory of the race.  

Instead of averaging out the differing opinions and declaring the races too close to call, it was more likely that one party would be very right and the other very wrong. Now, with results in hand, we can see who had the better analysis. Unfortunately, the parties split the races on Election Night.  

With less than two weeks to go before Election Day, we’re changing the Rothenberg Political Report/Roll Call ratings in seven House races.  

You can read more explanation in the Oct. 24 update for Rothenberg Political Report subscribers ($) .  

While Democratic and Republican operatives have their own analysis on each race, they often agree on how close a race is and which candidate has the edge.  

Sometimes, however, they have wildly different views on where races stand.  

Regardless of whether you want to call it a wave, the fight for the House continues to creep into Democratic territory.  

Many of the Republican incumbents who were expected to have challenging races this cycle, including New York Rep. Chris Gibson, Colorado Rep. Mike Coffman and Illinois Rep. Rodney Davis, are starting the general-election sprint in stronger-than-expected position. Also, some Democratic incumbents, such as New York’s Dan Maffei, are in much closer races than anticipated. And now some hot spots, such as Hawaii’s 1st District, are popping up as potential Democratic headaches and look vulnerable.  

The West has been difficult territory for Republicans over the last decade or so, but small GOP gains in the region could be a sign of larger gains elsewhere around the country.  

If Republicans can win the Alaska Senate race, they would be in strong position to win that chamber’s majority. And picking up a House seat or two in California would likely be the icing on a very good night for Republicans.  

Updated: 8:18 p.m. | A state judge denied Rep. Colleen Hanabusa's request to postpone voting in Hawaii's Democratic Senate primary, where voters in a couple precincts are scheduled to cast ballots Friday.  

With the Democratic Senate primary in Hawaii too close to call and several thousand votes on the line, Rep. Colleen Hanabusa, D-Hawaii, has sued the state's Office of Elections to postpone Friday's special election date.  

A hurricane descended on Hawaii  during last weekend's primary, forcing officials to postpone elections in two precincts on the Big Island. They decided Monday  to hold special elections on Friday.  

The Democratic primary between Hawaii Sen. Brian Schatz and Rep. Colleen Hanabusa was too close to call early Sunday morning, and the race may not be decided for days.  

Voting in two precincts on the Big Island, which was hit hardest by Hurricane Iselle, was postponed because of storm damage, KITV reported . Those Democrats will vote absentee and essentially decide the contest, though Hanabusa has some ground to make up.  

It’s only been eight years since Republican Linda Lingle was elected to her second term as governor of Hawaii. But her success in that race overestimates the GOP’s chances in future statewide elections, including this year’s gubernatorial race.  

Lingle was Republicans’ best possible candidate for Senate last cycle, and she was crushed, 63 percent to 37 percent, by Democratic Rep. Mazie K. Hirono. That should give anyone pause when handicapping former Lt. Gov. James "Duke" Aiona’s challenge to Democratic Gov. Neil Abercrombie in the fall.