fl-07

Stephanie Murphy Defeats GOP's Mica in Florida’s 7th District
Mica had previously coasted to double-digit victories

Stephanie Murphy, Democratic candidate for Florida's 7th congressional district, here being interviewed by CQ Roll Call, won her race against incumbent Republican John L. Mica. (Thomas McKinless/CQ Roll Call file photo)

Democrat Stephanie Murphy will defeat incumbent Republican Rep. John L. Mica in Florida’s 7th District, The Associated Press projects. 

Murphy led Mica 51.5 percent to 48.5 percent with 98 percent of precincts reporting. 

Ratings Change: 7 House Races Shift Toward Democrats
But one change toward Republicans isn’t particularly good news for majority chances

California Rep. Jeff Denham faces a competitive re-election fight with less than two weeks before Nov. 8. (Bill Clark/CQ Roll Call file photo)

When nearly 90 percent of the batch of House ratings changes are in your favor, it’s normally great news. But with a limited House playing field, Democrats need to win virtually all of the competitive seats, and some initial takeover targets look like they are slipping out of reach.

In the most recent set of ratings changes by The Rothenberg & Gonzales Political Report/Roll Call, seven races shift toward the Democrats. Takeover prospects improved in a couple of California districts (the 10th and 49th), a couple of districts with weakened GOP incumbents (Florida’s 7th and New Jersey’s 5th), and two suburban districts (Kansas’ 3rd and Pennsylvania’s 8th).

Ratings Changes in 12 Competitive House Races
6 races shift toward Democrats but 6 improve for Republicans

Iowa Rep. David Young's' re-election contest in the state's 3rd District moves from Tossup to Tilts Republican, according to The Rothenberg & Gonzales Political Report/Roll Call's latest race rating. (Tom Williams/CQ Roll Call file photo)

With five weeks to go before Election Day, Democrats are still waiting for Donald Trump to create the nationwide swell that would be necessary to put the Republicans’ House majority into play. House races are often late to engage but, thus far, the developments have been a mixed bag for Democrats, keeping sizable gains out of reach.

The lack of vulnerable Democrats — and the resiliency of many Republican incumbents in the face of an unpopular presidential nominee — could amount to a historic election in the House, but not in the way one might think. The cycle could produce the fewest number of House seats to flip party control in 60 years.

Democrats Target Florida's John Mica in Desirable Pickup Seat
New ad introduces Stephanie Murphy as a new voice for Congress

Florida Rep. John L. Mica's 7th District got bluer after recent redistricting, giving Democrats hope of knocking him off in a presidential year. (Bill Clark/CQ Roll Call File Photo)

House Majority PAC, the Democratic super PAC that works to elect Democrats to the House, is going on the air Tuesday with an ad attacking 12-term Florida Republican Rep. John L. Mica and introducing Democrat Stephanie Murphy as a "new approach to get the job done." 

Democrats have been eyeing Florida's 7th District as a possible pickup opportunity but didn't have a candidate until Murphy announced her candidacy the day before Florida's June 24 filing deadline. Democrat Bill Phillips suspended his campaign in April.