In Senate, Republicans Hold Arizona; Democrats Keep New Mexico

Rep. Jeff Flake will succeed retiring Sen. Jon Kyl in Arizona. (Bill Clark/CQ Roll Call File Photo)

Two Congressmen from different parties are moving up to the Senate.

Rep. Jeff Flake (R) is set to represent Arizona in the Senate, while Rep. Martin Heinrich (D) is set to be New Mexico's newest Senator, according to an Associated Press projection.

Arizona: Republicans Spend Big in Final Week; Democrats Go For the Jugular

Republicans are spending big in their effort to defeat Richard Carmona, who is running for the Senate in Arizona. (Bill Clark/CQ Roll Call File Photo)

During the final week of the Arizona Senate race, supporters of Rep. Jeff Flake (R) and former Surgeon General Richard Carmona (D) are expected to spend almost $7.5 million, according to a Republican source who tracks media buys.

Both sides are investing heavily, although Republicans are slated to outspend Democrats by about a 2-to-1 margin. But the Democrats are packing a punch with this new spot:

Daily Ad Track

Here is what cut through the clutter today:

Massachusetts 6

Arizona: Barbs Turn Personal Among Richard Carmona, Jon Kyl and John McCain

The Arizona Senate race has taken a nasty and personal turn in the final days, highlighted by increasingly sharp barbs between GOP Sens. Jon Kyl and John McCain and former Surgeon General Richard Carmona (D).

Daily Ad Track

Here's what cut through the clutter today:

Illinois 8

Arizona: Jeff Flake Delivers GOP's Weekly Address

Rep. Jeff Flake is the second Arizona Republican in a month to deliver the GOP's weekly address.

The move appears to be an effort to boost Flake's Senate campaign and to present a national face of fiscal conservatism.

Daily Ad Track

The news on the TV advertising front today has more to do with resource strategy rather than content. As time runs out to book TV reservations, what is most interesting today is where committees and super PACs are spending, rather than the actual ads.

Here is what cut through the clutter:

Daily Ad Track

The most noteworthy television ads today all dealt with negativity — how to dish it out and how to respond. The toughest ad we saw came from the Democratic House Majority PAC. The ad in the Colorado 6th House race is one of the toughest we have ever seen.

Here is what else that cut through the clutter:

Arizona: DSCC Adds to TV Buys for Carmona
Race Ratings Changes: Less Than One Month to Go

Rep. Dan Benishek increasingly looks like he won't return for the 113th Congress. (Tom Williams/CQ Roll Call File Photo)

One year ago it would have been hard to picture both the Arizona and Connecticut open-seat Senate races as Tossups with less than a month to go before Election Day. But funny things can happen to the Senate battleground map based on candidates and the campaigns they run — just ask Republicans this cycle about Missouri.

The open-seat Senate races in the Nutmeg State and the Grand Canyon State are thousands of miles apart, yet share some distinct similarities. Both feature House Members who began the race as the heavy frontrunner and challengers who have surged based on the strength of their campaigns. Those challengers will still have to overcome a heavy partisan disadvantage at the presidential level, but that prospect seems to be increasingly possible. Therefore, we are moving both races into the tossup column, even though in both races, the party that currently holds the seat still has a very small advantage.