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With the two Democratic recalls in Wisconsin next week losing some of their luster, the big question now is whether the Democrats will try to recall GOP Gov. Scott Walker next year. Despite the bravado, looking at the evidence, there are some strong reasons that might cause the Democrats to shy away from the Walker recall.
The first problem is simply practical. There is a reason that there have been only two gubernatorial recalls in U.S. history, North Dakota in 1921 and California in 2003 (though Arizona would have had one in 1988 if the governor hadnít first been impeached).
They are hard to get on the ballot. Wisconsinís rules make it even harder.
The state boasts one of the most difficult signature requirements to get a recall on the ballot. First, it requires a fairly high number of signatures (25 percent of the number of votes for the governorís office in the last election). It could be higher ó for example, Louisiana requires the signatures of 33 1/3 percent of all the eligible voters in the district ó but it is clearly a healthy amount.
The high threshold is combined with an extremely tight deadline to hand them in ó 60 days. Only four states limit the gathering period to 60 days. Most of the others fall between 90 and 180.
Compare this with California. There, signatures amounting to only 12 percent of the votes in the last election were needed, and gatherers were given 160 days.
Certainly a recall against Walker is doable, but it will expensive, it will be a scramble and, as we saw with the results Tuesday, the recall might not succeed.
But this practical problem is compounded by a more serious political one. Would the recall backfire against the Democrats in the presidential election? There is a chance that it could. Hereís why:
There are three time periods when you can have the recall. One is as a special election (which is anytime), the second is on the same day as a primary and the third is on the same day as a general election.
The problem with a special election is that it costs a lot of money to hold. We donít have hard numbers on Wisconsin just yet, but the recall of California Gov. Gray Davis (D) cost somewhere in the neighborhood of $66 million, and that was without a primary vote. Miami-Dade just dropped $12 million to $15 million to replace its mayor.
The cost of the recall is generally not a great defense for a sitting official. Sometimes it works, but frequently it fails. However, if Walker survives, then the cost of the recall could become a weapon for the Republicans in November. It plays directly into their overarching theme of profligate Democrats. Since Wisconsin is a swing state, the Democrats probably would hesitate to hand any new weapons to the Republicans.
Holding a recall on primary day (which looks like it will be moved back to April) could be an advantage to the elected officials. But 2012 will have a potentially hotly contested Republican presidential nomination battle. There will not be one on the Democratic side. So Republicans will be motivated to come down for other reasons, thereby putting the Democrats in a precarious position from the start.