A year out from the 2016 elections, the playing field of competitive Senate races is still taking shape, with ratings changes in three contests.
- Arizona Senate: Republican Sen. John McCain will probably never be able to avoid a primary, but he isn’t in imminent danger of losing to state Sen. Kelli Ward next year. Democratic Rep. Ann Kirkpatrick is a credible general election foe, but the GOP presidential nominee shouldn’t have trouble winning Arizona and McCain is unlikely to underperform the top of the ticket. We’re moving the race from Leans Republican to Republican Favored.
- Georgia Senate: Democrats haven’t been able to come up with a top-tier challenger to GOP Sen. Johnny Isakson and appear to be waiting for him to give up his seat. The senator is moving in the other direction. He had $5.4 million in the bank on Sept. 30 and has no opponent. We’re moving the race from Republican Favored to Safe Republican.
- Missouri Senate: Republican Sen. Roy Blunt is favored to win a second term, but he can’t be considered safe with Democratic Secretary of State Jason Kander in the race. Kander is a likable candidate putting together a quality campaign and he had $1.5 million in the bank at the end of September. Blunt had $4.4 million. We’re moving the race from Safe Republican to Republican Favored.