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Race Ratings Changes in 24 House Contests

Garcia is running for re-election in Florida. (Bill Clark/CQ Roll Call File Photo)

The Republican majority in the House has not been at risk in nearly a year, and the landscape continues to move in their direction in the party’s effort to add seats.  

The playing field has narrowed and shifted into more Democratic territory. But the precise size of the Republican gains is still unclear.  

We’re changing our Rothenberg Political Report/Roll Call rating in 24 House races . You can read the more specific analysis of the competitive contests in the October 29 issue of the Rothenberg Political Report ($ ).  

Races moving in favor of Republicans:

  • Florida’s 26th District (Rep. Joe Garcia, Democrat): From Pure Tossup to Tossup/Tilts Republican.
  • Iowa’s 1st District (Open; Bruce Braley, Democrat, is running for Senate): From Tossup/Tilts Democratic to Pure Tossup.
  • Minnesota’s 8th District (Rep. Rick Nolan, DFL): From Tossup/Tilts Democratic to Pure Tossup
  • Nevada’s 4th District (Rep. Steven Horsford, Democrat): From Safe Democrat to Favored Democratic.
  • New Jersey’s 3rd District (Open; Rep. Jon Runyan, Republican, is retiring): From Tossup/Tilts Republican to Leans Republican.
  • New York’s 1st District (Rep. Timothy H. Bishop, Democrat): From Tossup/Tilts Democratic to Pure Tossup.
  • New York’s 11th District (Rep. Michael G. Grimm, Republican): From Pure Tossup to Tossup/Tilts Republican.
  • New York’s 18th District (Rep. Sean Patrick Maloney, Democrat): From Leans Democratic to Tossup/Tilts Democratic.
  • New York’s 24th District (Rep. Dan Maffei, Democrat): From Leans Democratic to Tossup/Tilts Democratic.

Races moving in favor of Democrats:

  • Arkansas’ 4th District (Open; Rep. Tom Cotton, Republican, is running for Senate): From Safe Republican to Favored Republican.
  • Illinois’ 17th District (Rep. Cheri Bustos, Democrat): From Leans Democratic to Favored Democratic.
  • Nebraska’s 2nd District (Rep. Lee Terry, Republican): From Pure Tossup to Tossup/Tilts Democratic.
  • New Hampshire’s 1st District (Rep. Carol Shea-Porter, Democrat): From Pure Tossup to Tossup/Tilts Democratic.
  • West Virginia’s 2nd District (Open; Rep. Shelley Moore Capito, Republican, is running for Senate): From Leans Republican to Tossup/Tilts Republican.

Seats moving off the list of the most competitive races (in either direction):

  • California’s 10th District (Rep. Jeff Denham, Republican): From Favored Republican to Safe Republican.
  • California’s 36th District (Rep. Raul Ruiz, Democrat): From Favored Democratic to Safe Democrat.
  • Florida’s 18th District (Rep. Patrick Murphy, Democrat): From Favored Democratic to Safe Democrat.
  • Illinois' 13th District (Rep. Rodney Davis, Republican): From Favored Republican to Safe Republican.
  • Michigan’s 8th District (Open; Rep. Mike Rogers, Republican, is retiring): From Favored Republican to Safe Republican.
  • Michigan’s 11th District (Open; Kerry Bentivolio, Republican, was defeated in the primary): From Favored Republican to Safe Republican.
  • Montana’s At-Large District (Open; Rep. Steve Daines, Republican, is running for Senate): From Favored Republican to Safe Republican.
  • New York’s 19th District (Rep. Chris Gibson, Republican): From Favored Republican to Safe Republican.
  • New York’s 21st District (Open; Rep. Bill Owens, Democrat, is retiring): From Favored Republican to Safe Republican.
  • New York’s 23rd District (Rep. Tom Reed, Republican): From Favored Republican to Safe Republican.

Be the first to know about Rothenberg Political Report/Roll Call race rating changes with our new Roll Call politics app Related Stories: Coup Brews Against NRCC Chairman New Poll Shows Lee Terry Still Trailing DCCC Spends to Boost Five Incumbents What Counts As a GOP Wave in 2014? Roll Call Election Map: Race Ratings for Every Seat Get breaking news alerts and more from Roll Call in your inbox or on your iPhone.

Topics: house