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Rothenberg: The Most Vulnerable House Incumbent(s) of 2014

A couple of rematches and some new blood are likely to give incumbents fits as they prepare for the midterm elections

Douglas Graham/CQ Roll Call File Photo
Miller has the dubious distinction being Rothenberg’s most vulnerable House member of 2014.

Last week, I discussed the most vulnerable senator seeking re-election. It was a tough call, but clearly came down to two Southern Democrats. This week, the question is who is the House’s most vulnerable incumbent, and the answer is much, much easier.

It’s California Republican Gary G. Miller.

Miller is an eight-term Republican from San Bernardino County, and he isn’t vulnerable because of something he did. Until last year, the real estate developer and former California state assemblyman represented a reliably Republican, Orange County-based district that also included parts of Los Angeles County and San Bernardino County.

But redistricting after the 2010 census changed all that, and instead of opting for a member-vs.-member primary against fellow Republican Rep. Ed Royce, Miller decided to run in the newly created 31st District, territory he had not previously represented.

Democrats pretty much took this seat for granted after it was created, figuring they’d recruit a strong nominee and have little trouble winning in a presidential year. The district has a majority of minority voters (the district is 44 percent Hispanic and more than 11 percent black), and Barack Obama carried it with 57 percent of the vote in 2008 and 2012.

But Redlands Mayor Pete Aguilar (22.6 percent) got nosed out in the open primary by two Republicans — Miller (26.7 percent) and state Sen. Bob Dutton (24.8 percent) — so Democrats didn’t have a candidate in November. Three lower-tier Democrats combined to get more than a quarter of the open primary vote, thereby allowing the two Republicans to move on to November, when Miller won with 55 percent.

The congressman received considerable help from the National Association of Realtors, which spent heavily on mail and cable TV ads.

This time, national Democrats will keep closer tabs on the district, and they have plenty of reasons to believe that they’ll have a candidate on the November ballot. Aguilar is running again, and his early start proves that he has learned his lesson. Former Democratic Rep. Joe Baca recently made clear he is running in the district as well.

Even Republicans admit that Miller will have a tough time holding onto his seat if he faces a strong Democratic opponent in the next general election. The numbers are simply against him.

After Miller, the next most vulnerable incumbent is Tennessee Republican Rep. Scott DesJarlais, who has suffered from a series of revelations about his personal and professional life. GOP state Sen. Jim Tracy already has $400,000 in the bank, and only the possibility of a large primary field that might divide the anti-DesJarlais vote would seem to give the congressman much of a chance of winning renomination to another term.

After Miller and DesJarlais, there are a handful of obvious candidates for the next most vulnerable House incumbent.

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