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Rothenberg Archive

RATINGS CHANGE: Illinois Governor

Democrats had a much easier road to victory next November in Illinois, but state Attorney General Lisa Madigan’s decision not to run for governor will take her party down a much messier path.

What Happens When Political Spouses Misbehave?

Republican Gov. Bob McDonnell has endured weeks of negative headlines as The Washington Post thoroughly examines his relationship with a campaign donor. But as the investigation moves along, his wife, first lady Maureen McDonnell, is coming under increased scrutiny as well.

Keep Your Eye on the Dow

While the Dow Jones Industrial Average is up just short of 13 percent over the past year, it has lost almost 850 points since it hit its 52-week high of 15,658.43 on Aug. 2. With the Dow closing today at 14,824.51, that’s a drop of only 5.3 percent.

Carr’s Case Against Lamar Alexander Lacks Context

“If Lamar Alexander is voting with Barack Hussein Obama 62 percent of the time, he’s voting against Tennesseans 62 percent of the time,” state Rep. Joe Carr told a Nashville radio station last week. You’ll be surprised to know that Carr left a bit of context out of his comments in his primary challenge to the Volunteer State’s senior senator.

When Calling Something 'Politics' Is Mere Politics Itself

Last week, CBS News veteran correspondent Mark Knoller tweeted that “Pres Obama says he’ll do ‘whatever it takes’ to get Congress, esp GOP, ‘to think less about politics and party’ & do what’s good for US.”

4 More Things Losing Candidates Say (Readers' Edition)

The response to “6 Things Losing Candidates Say” has been unexpectedly overwhelming.

6 Things Losing Candidates Say

It’s August of an odd-numbered year, but the 2014 cycle is heating up. That means dozens of candidates are visiting us at The Rothenberg Political Report and Roll Call in anticipation of the midterm elections.

A Final Comment on Twitter and Election Forecasting

I shouldn’t be disappointed with MSNBC’s “Daily Rundown,” one of the few reasonable political shows not airing on Sunday morning. But the show did a segment with Indiana University sociologist Fabio Rojas, who recently wrote a Washington Post opinion piece on how Twitter can predict an election.

3 Key Factors Each Party Is Banking On for a Senate Majority

The Senate playing field is starting to solidify, and the fight for the majority looks like it will be decided in about a dozen states. But even though the fields of candidates are still taking shape in some of those contests, both Republicans and Democrats are banking on some macro-factors that will affect races at the micro-level.

Jimmy Eat World Mixing Music and Politics

When Jimmy Eat World played at a rally for Democratic Senate nominee Richard Carmona last cycle, it was a collision of my two worlds.

Twitter Can't Yet Predict Elections

The folks over at the Washington Post must have needed copy desperately for Monday’s opinion page if they were willing to publish a piece titled, “How Twitter can help predict an election.”

RATINGS CHANGE: Montana Senate

A month ago, Stuart Rothenberg made the case for why the Montana Senate seat remained a pure tossup. But now that former Gov. Brian Schweitzer is not running on the Democratic side, and Rep. Steve Daines is likely to run on the GOP side, Republicans should start this open seat race with a very narrow advantage.

No, Really: It's Still Too Early to Judge Senate Races

Just a little more than two years ago, that is how I began my assessment of the Senate battlefield in the Aug. 1, 2011, edition of the Rothenberg Political Report ($).

4 Lessons From Amelia Bedelia’s Failed Run for Mayor

Amelia Bedelia could hardly hold down a housekeeping job, but that didn’t stop her from running for mayor.

Rodney Alexander Will Take Post in Jindal Administration

Rep. Rodney Alexander isn’t wasting any time leaving Congress. The Louisiana Republican is expected to be appointed to Gov. Bobby Jindal’s cabinet at an event this afternoon.

Republicans Can’t Win on August Recess

In politics, it’s often damned if you do, damned if you don’t, and Republicans and August recess is no different.

RATINGS CHANGE: Ohio’s 6th District

Ohio may not be a wasteland for competitive congressional races after all.

Incumbent Primary Challengers: Some Promising, Others Premature

The 2014 primary season has begun with high-profile Democratic Senate primaries in Massachusetts and New Jersey. But they’re the tip of the iceberg in what promises to be a cycle of competitive, and possibly nasty, primaries in both parties.

When 94 Percent Isn’t Pure Enough for Conservative Republicans

Republican state Sen. Mimi Walters has a 94 percent lifetime rating with California’s anti-tax group, but that might not be enough for her to avoid a anti-tax primary challenger as she runs for Congress.

RATINGS CHANGE: Maine Senate

When Democrats float the idea of a Republican senator joining President Barack Obama’s Cabinet, it usually means they know they can’t defeat the incumbent in an election.

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