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Perhaps more so than any other House member in the country, Shea-Porter is at the mercy of the national political mood. The Granite State is notoriously volatile, switching out its two House members in three of the past four cycles. What’s more, the liberal congresswoman represents the more GOP-friendly district in New Hampshire.
National Republican operatives chalk up Shea-Porter’s return to President Barack Obama outperforming expectations in the 1st District. Local Republicans blame a libertarian spoiler for her return. Regardless, she’s even more vulnerable without those factors on the ballot in 2014.Rep. John F. Tierney, D-Mass. 9th term (48 percent)
The Democrat cheated near-electoral death last cycle against a top GOP recruit, former state Sen. Richard Tisei. And with an ethics investigation into his personal finances behind him, some Democrats argue Tierney is in better shape going in 2014. Yet Tierney faces new challenges this cycle: two primary opponents who are all but assured to attack him on his past ethical dustups — including his wife’s ties to an illegal gambling ring run by her brother.
If Tierney survives the primary, he is likely to face another tough election against Tisei. The Republican came within 1 point of ousting Tierney even as Obama carried the district by an 11-point margin. And without Obama on the ticket, Tierney won’t have much help to pull him over the finish line.