Tierney cheated near-electoral death last cycle and with an ethics investigation into his personal finances behind him, some Democrats argue he is in better shape going in 2014.
Bentivolio now faces a primary opponent, attorney David Trott, with deep pockets. At least one Democrat, former State Department senior adviser Bobby McKenzie, is already in the race, although the national party is wooing Wayne State University Law School Interim Dean Jocelyn Benson to run.
The biggest loser in Colorado’s redistricting last cycle, Coffman went from representing a conservative district to a Tossup. He got lucky last cycle when he faced a weak challenger.
But this time around, Democrats landed a top recruit and fundraiser: former state Speaker Andrew Romanoff. Coffman won’t get much help from the top of the ballot either, thanks to the state GOP’s struggle to field strong statewide candidates. But Republicans note Coffman is savvy and has been voting more in line with his new district since the redraw.
If there was a No. 1 on this list, it would be DesJarlais. Bombshell revelations about his personal life are all but sure to sink him next year. His widely reported 2001 divorce proceedings show the self-described anti-abortion-rights conservative encouraged his former wife and former mistress to have multiple abortions.
DesJarlais now faces a top GOP primary opponent, state Sen. Jim Tracy, who is decimating the congressman in fundraising. Tracy currently has a 5-to-1 cash advantage in this conservative district where the GOP nominee will likely become the next congressman.
He’s back. Matheson has appeared on — and defied — this list many times before. But the nature of his conservative district, his top competitor and a slim margin of victory last year make him vulnerable again in 2014.
Mitt Romney carried this district with 67 percent last year; meanwhile, Matheson eked out a 768-vote victory. Matheson will be helped by not having Romney on top of the Utah ballot. But his returning opponent, Saratoga Springs Mayor Mia Love, has vowed to run a more efficient campaign the second time around.
McIntyre won this district by less than 700 votes last year, defying Republicans — and his previous appearances on this list — yet again. Next year, McIntyre faces a rematch with David Rouzer in this district that GOP presidential nominee Mitt Romney carried by 19 points last cycle.
Republicans say that off-year turnout, which normally favors the party not in the White House, will be enough to knock out the longtime Democrat. But McIntyre could get a boost from Sen. Kay Hagan’s re-election effort. In any case, McIntyre is on track for another rough re-election race.
Miller represents the strongest Democratic district occupied by a House Republican. In 2012 , he got lucky when four Democratic candidates chopped up the primary vote to allow Miller and another Republican to emerge from the top-two primary, ensuring a GOP victory.
Four Democrats are again vying for this district that Obama carried with 57 percent last cycle. Miller is currently the only GOP candidate in this race so far, making it impossible for him to replicate his 2012 luck. Provided a strong Democrat emerges for November 2014, Miller’s re-election will be much more difficult than last cycle.