By the numbers, New York’s 18th District isn’t solid-blue Democratic territory. But at this stage of the cycle, GOP optimism about defeating Democratic Rep. Sean Patrick Maloney is very low. And that lack of enthusiasm could indicate that former Rep. Nan Hayworth, a Republican, won’t get much financial support from outside groups for the stretch run this fall.
President Barack Obama won the district twice, but with just 52 percent in 2008 and 51 percent in 2012. Last cycle, Maloney defeated Hayworth by a narrow margin, 52 percent to 48 percent. Hayworth is running again, reported $500,000 in her campaign account at the end of the year, and has put some personal money into her past races. But the former congresswoman isn’t running the type of campaign that is inspiring confidence among some GOP strategists. Also, Maloney, who had $1.1 million in his campaign account at the end of December, has avoided serious missteps in his first term.
It’s possible that the national electoral dynamic starts to shift this race back in the GOP’ favor. But for now, we’re moving the Rothenberg Political Report /Roll Call race rating of New York’s 18th District to Currently Safe for Democrats from Democrat Favored.