Rothenblog

RATINGS CHANGE: Illinois' 10th District

Schneider is a freshman (Douglas Graham/CQ-Roll Call File Photo)

For years, Democrats couldn’t crack the electoral code to  win the 10th District in Chicago’s northern suburbs. But now that they hold the seat, can Republicans get it back?

On one hand, Democrat Brad Schneider narrowly defeated GOP incumbent Robert Dold, 51 percent to 49 percent, by just 3,326 votes.

On the other hand, the district is Democratic whether President Barack Obama is in the picture or not. He won it with 58 percent and 60 percent in 2012 and 2008, respectively. Sen. John Kerry, D-Mass., won it with 54 percent in 2004.

Even though Dold is a very credible candidate and should run a good campaign, this might be a case where once the GOP lost the seat, it’s tough to get back.

Still, with Dold now officially in the race, we are moving it from Democrat Favored to Lean Democrat in the Rothenberg Political Report/Roll Call ratings.