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Ranking Potential Flips for 2014 House Rematches

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Barber won a narrow victory last year over McSally, but a 2014 rematch may not go his way, Rothenberg writes.

House veteran Tierney was regarded as a dead duck by many (including me) last time, but he squeezed out a narrow victory over Tisei, who is expected to make another run in 2014. The midterm dynamic could help the moderate, pro-choice, pro-gay-marriage Republican, though you can bet the Democrats will once again try to lump him in with the tea party, as they did in 2012.

7. Illinois’ 10th: Democratic Rep. Brad Schneider vs. Republican Bob Dold

Dold has not yet announced that he will run again, but GOP insiders agree that he is looking closely at a possible rematch. Schneider drew 50.6 percent to Dold’s 49.4 percent (a margin of 3,326 votes), so it isn’t hard to see why the Republican would think his prospects would improve in a nonpresidential year.

8. New York’s 18th: Democratic Rep. Sean Patrick Maloney vs. Republican Nan Hayworth

Maloney used a late surge to defeat Hayworth after a single term, and the Republican recently filed for a rematch. Hayworth lost by just under 11,000 votes out of almost 277,000 cast for the two major party candidates, and she hopes the midterm electorate — and the absence of President Barack Obama on the ballot pulling Democratic voters to the polls — will help her win back her old seat.

9. Minnesota’s 2nd: Republican Rep. John Kline vs. Democrat Mike Obermueller

Democrats have a clear primary for Obermueller, a former state representative, and they are touting this as a race to watch. But Kline won by more than 29,000 votes (and 8 points), and while Obama won the district narrowly, there isn’t a lot of reason to assume that Obermueller will do dramatically better in 2014 than he did last year.

10. Illinois’ 17th: Democratic Rep. Cheri Bustos vs. Republican Bobby Schilling

Schilling lost by about 19,000 votes (6.5 points) in this redrawn, reliably Democratic district. But the former congressman is apparently giving serious consideration to a rematch. Bustos ought not to underestimate the likable Schilling if he runs again, but the fundamentals of the district definitely favor the Democrat. The climb looks terribly steep for any Republican here, even Schilling.

Stuart Rothenberg (@stupolitics) is editor of the Rothenberg Political Report (rothenbergpoliticalreport.com). Read more at his blog, Rothenblog (blogs.rollcall.com/rothenblog).

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