Kentucky Rep. Ben Chandler, a conservative Blue Dog Democrat, lost tonight to Lexington attorney Andy Barr (R).
With 98.7 percent of precincts reporting, the Associated Press called the race for Barr. He took 50.5 percent to Chandler's 46.8 percent.
Chandler beat Barr by 647 votes in 2010, the third-closest House race in the nation.
But this cycle Barr had a new playbook. He focused, especially in the waning months, on tying Chandler to President Barack Obama — who is deeply unpopular in Kentucky — and focusing on issues related to coal, which is important to a big swath of the newly configured 6th district.
Chandler, for his part, had a similar strategy to 2010, but he started pushing out ads on coal issues after Barr began advertising on the topic. That's when internal polls began to show Chandler slipping.
And he never recovered.
Chandler could be the first of many conservative Democrats to be defeated tonight.