GOP Poll Shows Tight Race in New York District NRCC Has Abandoned

Jack Martins’ polling shows much closer race in 3rd District than public polling

Polling for Republican candidate Jack Martins showed a close race in New York’s 3rd District, which the NRCC has all but abandoned. (Meredith Dake-O’Connor/CQ Roll Call File Photo)

The National Republican Congressional Committee may have pulled almost all of its ad reservations in New York’s 3rd District, but internal polling from GOP nominee Jack Martins suggests he still has a shot at the race.

Democratic nominee Tom Suozzi led Martins by less than a point according to an internal poll from the Martins campaign shared first with Roll Call. Martins’ polling provides a very different snapshot of the race from the most recent public polls of the district.

In Martins’ poll, Suozzi had the support of 43.2 percent of likely voters, while Martins had the support of 42.6 percent. CLOUT Research surveyed 602 likely voters on landlines from Oct. 16-17. The poll had a margin of error of 3.97 percentage points.

The polling memo noted that Martins has closed the gap from an early October survey that showed Suozzi leading by more than 10 points. 

[Opinion: Finding Sanity in a N.Y. District 3 Hours North of Trump Tower]

Republicans are mostly on the defensive this year. But the 3rd District is one of the party’s few opportunities to flip a Democratic seat in 2016. Current Democratic Rep. Steve Israel is retiring. 

Public polling has given the Democrats a strong edge in this race, which The Rothenberg & Gonzales Political Report/Roll Call rates Leans Democratic. In the most recent Siena College poll, released Oct. 8, Suozzi held a 16-point lead over Martins, 50 to 34 percent.

Democratic polling has given Suozzi a consistent edge, too. Late September polling by GBA strategies on behalf of the Suozzi campaign gave the Democrat a 55 to 38 percent lead. 

House Majority PAC is still playing in the district. The Democratic super PAC went up with a new ad on cable over the weekend. 

President Barack Obama carried the district by 8 points in 2008 and by 3 in 2012. Martins’ polling memo did not include presidential numbers for the district. 


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