CHARLOTTE, N.C. - After three straight waves, the 2012 election cycle looks likely to end in a wash.
Just nine weeks before Election Day, strategists in both parties say the current atmospherics don't tip the scale toward either Democrats or Republicans. Signs of a wave are usually visible by now, and the absence of one puts greater importance on the quality of individual candidates and campaigns, especially in House races.
"It means you have to run a real campaign for a change," Republican media consultant Curt Anderson said. "In '06 and '08, we did some great ads and great work and none of it mattered because the Democrats just put up an ad and said, 'Bush sucks, he's with Bush.'"
The Democratic National Convention kicks off today with candidates across the country running in a far more neutral environment than in the past three election cycles, when one party had a clear advantage.
But it's still early September, so political winds can shift because of game-changing events - such as the fall of Lehman Brothers in September 2008. Still, consultants have told their clients not to expect to ride a wave into Congress this year.
In this cycle, more than any other since 2004, the outcome of each Congressional race will be determined by the candidates on the ballot, as opposed to the national political environment.
In the House, Democrats would need a wave-type atmosphere to net the 25 seats they need to win back the majority, and it doesn't appear they'll get that this year. Republicans gained 63 seats in the 2010 elections, winning back suburban and Southern seats the party had lost in the Democratic wave elections of 2006 and 2008.
"It does feel like each individual race is being fought on its own terms," Democratic pollster Jef Pollock said. "Obviously we are all underneath the presidential, but that's the way it is in every presidential. But in each race it feels like you've got to move the ball inch by inch, you're sort of fighting for yardage."
The actual number of seats a party is likely to pick up doesn't typically become clear until closer to the elections. Even in a wave, subpar House candidates or campaigns can ride into Congress on their party's national coattails, far exceeding expectations. The opposite is true for quality candidates running in the wrong year.
"Some of my best candidates and best campaigns went down last cycle, and I don't feel they did anything wrong," Pollock said.
With one convention down, the presidential race is closer than ever. President Barack Obama and Republican nominee Mitt Romney were tied as of Monday in the RealClearPolitics.com average of recent national polls.
Senate control is up for grabs as well, though Democrats certainly appear more likely to hold the majority than they did a year ago. Even in wave elections, Senate races are largely their own beasts.
Lois Lerner, director of exempt organizations for the IRS, arrives for a House Oversight and Government Reform Committee hearing on the investigation of the IRS' targeting of political groups. Lerner invoked her Fifth Amendment right to not testify and caused a protest from some committee members when she offered an opening statement and engaged in dialogue with members before invoking the right.
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