Only three incumbents seem to be safe bets to return to Congress: Rep. Trent Franks (R) and Democratic Reps. Raúl Grijalva and Ed Pastor. Both parties say they view Democratic Rep. Gabrielle Giffords’ 2nd district as a tossup seat. But in light of last year’s shooting, should she choose to seek re-election, there is little appetite among Republicans to launch a serious challenge.
The commission spokesman described the map as tentative and “pending legal and technical analysis.” It will also need federal pre-clearance approval before it becomes law. There is some discussion among Arizona Republicans about possible litigation against the new map.