The new makeup of Arizona is four safe Republican seats, two safe Democratic seats and three tossups. The current delegation is three Democrats and four Republicans.
Only three incumbents seem to be safe bets to return to Congress: Rep. Trent Franks (R) and Democratic Reps. Raúl Grijalva and Ed Pastor. Both parties say they view Democratic Rep. Gabrielle Giffords’ 2nd district as a tossup seat. But in light of last year’s shooting, should she choose to seek re-election, there is little appetite among Republicans to launch a serious challenge.
The commission spokesman described the map as tentative and “pending legal and technical analysis.” It will also need federal pre-clearance approval before it becomes law. There is some discussion among Arizona Republicans about possible litigation against the new map.
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