And while the district voted for GOP presidential nominee Mitt Romney with 61 percent in 2012, there remains a third possibility that a Democrat can eke into a runoff if the second-tier Republicans carve up the conservative vote.
Operatives say Mayo, an African-American mayor of one of the district’s largest cities, would likely be the Democrat who could pull off that scenario.
However with other Democrats in the race, including state Reps. Marcus Hunter and Robert Johnson, the party would need to unite behind just one candidate for Mayo to be successful.
With a low turnout predicted for the contest, operatives say anything can happen on Saturday.
“Anybody that can successfully predict this special election should be a professional horse gamer,” one Republican said.
Rep. Eric Swalwell, D-Calif., walks on Broadway after a Future Forum with young entrepreneurs in the Flatiron District of New York City, April 16, 2015. Reps. Steve Israel, D-N.Y., Seth Moulton, D-Mass., and Grace Meng, D-N.Y., also attended.