Rep. Jack Kingston's Tuesday defeat in a Senate primary runoff means no more than nine House members could join the ranks of the Senate in the 114th Congress — and that number could shrink again next month.
With 13 members giving up their seats to run for Senate, Kingston became the third House member from Georgia and the fourth nationwide to unsuccessfully seek a Senate nomination. Rep. Steve Stockman, R-Texas, who failed in his primary challenge to Sen. John Cornyn, and Georgia Reps. Phil Gingrey and Paul Broun, who failed to advance in the May primary, were the others.
Of the final nine, only Rep. Colleen Hanabusa, D-Hawaii, is not yet assured of appearing on the November ballot. She faces appointed Sen. Brian Schatz in an Aug. 9 special-election primary . The winner will be favored in the general election. The most likely senator of the bunch is Oklahoma Rep. James Lankford, who won the June 24 special election GOP primary. He’s likely to succeed resigning GOP Sen. Tom Coburn.
The remaining list of potential senators currently serving in the House includes Reps. Bruce Braley, D-Iowa; Shelley Moore Capito, R-W.Va.; Bill Cassidy, R-La.; Tom Cotton, R-Ark.; Steve Daines, R-Mont.; Cory Gardner, R-Colo.; and Gary Peters, D-Mich. Each has a shot — in some cases, a strong one — at winning in November.
Two others elected to the House in 2012 have already secured spots in the Senate. Sen. Edward J. Markey, D-Mass., vacated his House seat and won a special election last year, and he’s expected to be elected to a full term in November. Sen. Tim Scott, R-S.C., was appointed to his seat last year and is heavily favored to win a special in November.
Last cycle, half of the 12 House members vying for the Senate were successful . Just one, Rep. Bob Turner, R-N.Y., lost in a primary.
For more on this, see Roll Call’s Casualty List for 2014 and previous cycles.