Ratings Changes in 6 House Races

Guinta appears to be a little more vulnerable in the latest Rothenberg-Gonzales/Roll Call race ratings. (File Photo By Bill Clark/CQ Roll Call)

The race for president will continue to dominate the 2016 landscape, with the fight for the Senate sucking up any remaining oxygen molecules. But Democrats haven’t given up their effort to dig out of the minority in the House.  

Democrats face a difficult road to gain 30 seats and get back into the majority, but their prospects improved in a handful of races over the last few months.  

Two GOP incumbents moved into more vulnerable categories in the latest Rothenberg & Gonzales Political Report/Roll Call ratings . Rep. Frank Guinta moves from Tilts Republican to Tossup in New Hampshire’s 1st District, while Rep. Rod Blum of Iowa joins Nevada Rep. Cresent Hardy in the Tilts Democratic category from Tossup.  

State Sen. Morgan Carroll should give GOP Rep. Mike Coffman a strong challenge in a presidential year. The 6th District race moves from Favored Republican to Leans Republican. And in California’s 36th District, there is no evidence that Democratic Rep. Raul Ruiz is in significant danger. His race moves to Safe Democrat.  

In New Jersey, Democratic strategists believe GOP Rep. Scott Garrett is uniquely vulnerable due to an evolving district dominated by Bergen County and after private comments he made about the National Republican Congressional Committee’s support of gay candidates. It’s up to Democrats to prove this race will be different than the last six, but we’re moving the race out of Safe Republican to Favored Republican.  

Further south in the 3rd District, there appears to be very little appetite to take on wealthy Republican Rep. Tom MacArthur. That race moves from Favored Republican to Safe Republican.  

For more details on these races and analysis of over 65 more, read the August 11 issue  ($) of The Rothenberg & Gonzales Political Report .


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