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Arizona looks to be a central battleground in the fight for control of the House over the next decade, as the competitive nature of its independent commission-drawn districts proved earlier this month.
Redistricting created three competitive House seats that most Arizona political strategists say will be contested until a new map is drawn after the 2020 census. Three seats are in play — the 1st, the 2nd and the 9th. Demographically, all three slightly favor Republicans, but Democrats carried at least two of the three in 2012. Ballots are still being counted in the 2nd District.
“Even in a year where the Republicans won the presidential race [in Arizona] by around 10 points, those three seats were very competitive and voters are going to have choices,” Arizona Democratic operative Rodd McLeod said.
Republican and Democratic operatives do not see other Arizona seats coming into play. Headed into redistricting, Republicans held five of the state’s eight seats. Post-redistricting, there are four safe Republican seats, two safe Democratic seats and three tossups.
Democratic Reps.-elect Ann Kirkpatrick and Kyrsten Sinema and the winner of the 2nd District race — Democratic Rep. Ron Barber or Republican Martha McSally — will begin the 2014 cycle as top targets for defeat. Kirkpatrick and Sinema were unable to break 50 percent in their final counts, as a libertarian candidate took votes in each race.
“That’s a very weak position to enter office, and I think it’d be like any other competitive district across the country where you have to go out and recruit candidates, raise money and not take anything for granted,” one Republican operative said.
A litany of problems dogged state Republicans this cycle, and operatives argue that the GOP will be in better shape next time around.
Democrats will concede some of those points, but they say the state GOP has deeper problems. In the past several years, state Republicans have built up a harshly conservative brand. The Republican-led state government’s hard-line immigration law did nothing to ingratiate the party to the growing Hispanic population. And like elsewhere in the country, moderates have a difficult time getting through GOP primaries without having to tack hard right.
The Republican operative said it could be easier to sort out primaries going forward because there won’t be multiple open seats — which draw a large field of candidates — because of redistricting.
“I think you would have a different situation, less people stepping up to the plate to challenge an incumbent,” he said. “That changes the whole primary situation.”
On the Democratic side, the party is placing an emphasis on targeting mail-in ballot voters and the Latino vote as well as cultivating a bench.