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True Size of GOP Wave Still Developing

Aside from GOP Reps. Anh "Joseph" Cao (La.) and Charles K. Djou (Hawaii) -- both of whom represent heavily Democratic districts -- there are three Republican Members whom Democrats believe they have a chance of defeating in November. They are Lungren and Reps. Dave Reichert (Wash.) and Charlie Dent (Pa.). Of the three, Lungren appears to be the easiest target for Democrats to paint as a politician who has been in office too long, a message that is certainly resonating with voters this cycle. Lungren's Democratic opponent, physician Ami Bera, has the resources to get that message out to voters, and his first TV ad was a direct salvo at Lungren, who is in his second stint in Congress.

There appears to be little doubt that Lungren will have to fight to hold his seat. We're monitoring the Reichert and Dent races, too, but we can't see justification for moving them at this point given the overall climate that favors the GOP.

Moved from Tossup to Leans Republican:

Colorado's 4th -- Rep. Betsy Markey (D)

Florida's 24th -- Rep. Suzanne M. Kosmas (D)

Illinois' 11th -- Rep. Debbie Halvorson (D)

Indiana's 8th -- open seat

Maryland's 1st -- Rep. Frank Kratovil Jr. (D)

New Hampshire's 2nd -- open seat

Ohio's 1st -- Rep. Steve Driehaus (D)

Ohio's 15th -- Rep. Mary Jo Kilroy (D)

Tennessee's 8th -- open seat

Texas' 17th -- Rep. Chet Edwards (D)

Moved from Leans Democratic to Tossup:

Arizona's 1st -- Rep. Ann Kirkpatrick (D)

Arizona's 5th -- Rep. Harry E. Mitchell (D)

Georgia's 8th -- Rep. Jim Marshall (D)

New York's 19th -- Rep. John Hall (D)

Pennsylvania's 10th -- Rep. Christopher Carney (D)

Wisconsin's 8th -- Rep. Steve Kagen (D)

California's 3rd district -- Rep. Dan Lungren (R)

Colorado's 3rd -- Rep. John Salazar (D)

Georgia's 2nd -- Rep. Sanford D. Bishop Jr. (D)

Washington's 2nd -- Rep. Rick Larsen (D)

Delaware at-large -- open seat

Kansas' 3rd -- open seat

Illinois' 17th -- Rep. Phil Hare (D)

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