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Roll Call

More House Seats Look Like They May Change Hands

The latest CQ-Roll Call survey of the political landscape finds an environment that continues to worsen for Democrats and new race ratings to reflect Republicans on the ascent.

Among the seats now held by Democrats that have been moved into more competitive categories, CQ-Roll Call now rates three of as likely to be won by Republicans: the 2nd district in Arkansas; the 3rd district in Louisiana; and the 29th district in New York.

Those three seats are open following the retirements or early departure of Democratic incumbents, and all three seats went for Sen. John McCain for president in 2008.

The New York district is vacant following the resignation of Eric Massa, who left amid a scandal.

Rep. Vic Snyder (Ark.) is retiring from a moderate district, where Democrat Joyce Elliott is currently running 17 points behind Republican Tim Griffin in a recent poll.

And after running unopposed two years ago, Rep. Charlie Melancon (La.), now seeking a place in the Senate, is leaving behind a district that voted 61 percent for McCain.

Another Democratic seat that now appears more likely to flip is in Kansas, where Rep. Dennis Moore (D) is retiring and his wife, Stephene, is running in his place.

The CQ-Roll Call rating on that district moves from the most competitive category, Tossup, to Leans Republican.

Standing out among the 11 Democratic districts moved into the Tossup category are those represented by two of the most powerful Members of Congress - Wisconsin's 7th district, which Appropriations Chairman David R. Obey is vacating, and South Carolina's 5th district, where Budget Chairman John M. Spratt Jr. is fighting his most difficult re-election battle since the mid-1990s.

After picking up more than 50 Republican seats in the last two election cycles, much of the Democrats' defense will focus on those seats.

Among those looking more vulnerable are freshman Reps. Kathy Dahlkemper (Pa.), John Boccieri (Ohio) and Debbie Halvorson (Ill.), whose seats now are rated as Tossups.

The seats of freshmen Ann Kirkpatrick (Ariz.) and Scott Murphy (N.Y.), and second-termers Patrick J. Murphy (Pa.), Joe Donnelly (Ind.) and Betty Sutton (Ohio) are now rated Leans Democrat.

With primary season coming to a close next month, both parties have put together plans to spend tens of millions of dollars in TV airtime in competitive areas where the Washington, D.C. professionals believe they can help their candidates.

As a sign of the times, while the National Republican Congressional Committee (NRCC) is focusing on playing offense, the vast majority of districts the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee (DCCC) plans to spend money are ones it is trying to hold, not pick up.

As always, money will be a factor in how much support the committees can offer.

The DCCC entered the year with a wide cash-on-hand advantage, an edge that has slimmed a bit as the NRCC has outraised it in each of the last four months. The DCCC began August with $35.8 million in the bank, and the NRCC had $22.1 million.

The CQ-Roll Call race ratings shifts are based on multiple factors including polling, the quality of candidates, primary results, second quarter fundraising reports and how the national party campaign committees view the districts. As Election Day draws closer, more movement in the fluid race ratings can be expected.

Moved to Tossup:

Arkansas' 1st district (open seat)

Florida's 2nd district (Rep. Allen Boyd)

Illinois' 11th district (Rep. Debbie Halvorson)

Indiana's 9th district (Rep. Baron P. Hill)

Ohio's 16th district (Rep. John Boccieri)

Pennsylvania's 3rd district (Rep. Kathy Dahlkemper)

South Carolina's 5th district (Rep. John M. Spratt Jr.)

South Dakota's At-large district (Rep. Stephanie Herseth Sandlin)

Texas' 17th district (Rep. Chet Edwards)

Wisconsin's 7th district (open seat)

Moved to Leans Democratic:

Alabama's 2nd district (Rep. Bobby Bright)

Arizona's 1st district (Rep. Ann Kirkpatrick)

Georgia's 8th district (Rep. Jim Marshall)

Indiana's 2nd district (Rep. Joe Donnelly)

New York's 20th district (Rep. Scott Murphy)

Ohio's 13th district (Rep. Betty Sutton)

Oregon's 5th district (Rep. Kurt Schrader)

Pennsylvania's 8th district (Rep. Patrick J. Murphy)

Tennessee's 4th district (Rep. Lincoln Davis)

Texas' 23rd district (Rep. Ciro Rodriguez)

Moved to Likely Democratic:

Georgia's 2nd district (Rep. Sanford D. Bishop Jr.)

North Carolina's 7th district (Rep. Mike McIntyre)

Oregon's 1st district (Rep. David Wu)

Washington's 2nd district (Rep. Rick Larsen)

West Virginia's 3rd (Rep. Nick J. Rahall II)

Moved to Safe Democratic:

Connecticut's 4th (Rep. Jim Himes)

Connecticut's 5th (Rep. Christopher S. Murphy)

Georgia's 12th (Rep. John Barrow)

Moved to Leans Republican:

Kansas' 3rd district (open seat)

Moved to Likely Republican:

Arkansas' 2nd district (open seat)

Pennsylvania's 6th district (Rep. Jim Gerlach)

Moved to Safe Republican:

Alabama's 5th district (open seat)

Arizona's 3rd district (open seat)

California's 44th district (Rep. Ken Calvert)

Kansas' 4th district (open seat)

Louisiana's 3rd district (open seat)

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