For the second cycle in a row, Tierney ranks among the most vulnerable incumbents.
Imminent third-quarter fundraising reports from both House incumbents and current candidates are likely to provide a glimpse into the future as to who may or may not be a member of the 114th Congress.
The reports will provide clues to a host of things, from which members of Congress may retire this cycle, to which candidates in crowded open-seat contests may elevate to front-runner status. Here are 10 to watch, in no particular order.
1 Ex-Rep. Marjorie Margolies, Democrat; Pennsylvania’s 13th District
Last quarter, Margolies’ $185,000 haul put her at the bottom of the fundraising pack of the four Democrats running in this open-seat primary in the Philadelphia suburbs. The low total was surprising for a former member such as Margolies, who boasts close ties to many high-power political players, including her in-laws, the Clintons.
The pricey local broadcast market makes campaigns here costly. Margolies’ own polling shows she’s in a strong position to win the primary, but another paltry haul could jeopardize her front-runner status.
2 Ex-Rep. Joe Baca, Democrat; California’s 31st District
Baca raised just $38,000 last quarter to unseat GOP Rep. Gary G. Miller. It’s a minuscule sum for any House candidate, but especially for a former member. Baca will need more to knock off an incumbent, even someone as vulnerable as Miller.
But first, Baca must ward off three Democratic candidates — including Redlands Mayor Pete Aguilar, who has the support of the national party. Baca’s needs a stronger quarter to mount a serious comeback.
3 Erika Harold, Republican; Illinois’ 13th District
Harold is looking to unseat freshman Rep. Rodney Davis in the primary for this swing district in southern Illinois. But she raised only $78,000 in the second quarter, not nearly enough to compete with Davis, a fundraising powerhouse.
If Harold’s third-quarter total is as small as her previous haul, her fledgling bid may be over quickly. The GOP nominee will face former Judge Ann Callis, a top Democratic recruit, in 2014.
4 Rep. Scott DesJarlais, Republican;Tennessee’s 4th District
Republicans have been gunning for DesJarlais since October 2012, when allegations surfaced that the anti-abortion-rights Republican had encouraged his then-wife and a mistress to have multiple abortions. DesJarlais won re-election anyway.
This cycle he faces a serious primary challenge from state Sen. Jim Tracy, a strong fundraiser who brought in $303,000 last quarter.
DesJarlais pulled in just $39,000 in the same time period, raising questions about how his support.
5 Rep. Melvin Watt, Democrat;North Carolina’s 12th District
President Barack Obama nominated Watt for a top spot in his administration, but his confirmation has dragged on for months.