For the second cycle in a row, Tierney ranks among the most vulnerable incumbents.
Imminent third-quarter fundraising reports from both House incumbents and current candidates are likely to provide a glimpse into the future as to who may or may not be a member of the 114th Congress.
The reports will provide clues to a host of things, from which members of Congress may retire this cycle, to which candidates in crowded open-seat contests may elevate to front-runner status. Here are 10 to watch, in no particular order.
1 Ex-Rep. Marjorie Margolies, Democrat; Pennsylvania’s 13th District
Last quarter, Margolies’ $185,000 haul put her at the bottom of the fundraising pack of the four Democrats running in this open-seat primary in the Philadelphia suburbs. The low total was surprising for a former member such as Margolies, who boasts close ties to many high-power political players, including her in-laws, the Clintons.
The pricey local broadcast market makes campaigns here costly. Margolies’ own polling shows she’s in a strong position to win the primary, but another paltry haul could jeopardize her front-runner status.
2 Ex-Rep. Joe Baca, Democrat; California’s 31st District
Baca raised just $38,000 last quarter to unseat GOP Rep. Gary G. Miller. It’s a minuscule sum for any House candidate, but especially for a former member. Baca will need more to knock off an incumbent, even someone as vulnerable as Miller.
But first, Baca must ward off three Democratic candidates — including Redlands Mayor Pete Aguilar, who has the support of the national party. Baca’s needs a stronger quarter to mount a serious comeback.
3 Erika Harold, Republican; Illinois’ 13th District
Harold is looking to unseat freshman Rep. Rodney Davis in the primary for this swing district in southern Illinois. But she raised only $78,000 in the second quarter, not nearly enough to compete with Davis, a fundraising powerhouse.
If Harold’s third-quarter total is as small as her previous haul, her fledgling bid may be over quickly. The GOP nominee will face former Judge Ann Callis, a top Democratic recruit, in 2014.
4 Rep. Scott DesJarlais, Republican;Tennessee’s 4th District
Republicans have been gunning for DesJarlais since October 2012, when allegations surfaced that the anti-abortion-rights Republican had encouraged his then-wife and a mistress to have multiple abortions. DesJarlais won re-election anyway.
This cycle he faces a serious primary challenge from state Sen. Jim Tracy, a strong fundraiser who brought in $303,000 last quarter.
DesJarlais pulled in just $39,000 in the same time period, raising questions about how his support.
5 Rep. Melvin Watt, Democrat;North Carolina’s 12th District
President Barack Obama nominated Watt for a top spot in his administration, but his confirmation has dragged on for months.
Rep. Elijah Cummings, D-Md., right, hugs Harold Schaitberger, General President of the International Association of Fire Fighters, after the Congressman spoke at the IAFF's Legislative Conference General Session at the Hyatt Regency on Capitol Hill, March 9, 2015. The day featured addresses by members of Congress and Vice President Joe Biden.