The Farm Team: Redraw Could Hurt Republicans

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Last in a four-part series.

In California, Democrats and Republicans don’t agree on much. But nearly 10 years ago, as redistricting loomed, party leaders on both sides of the aisle agreed on this: protecting as many incumbents as possible.

Accordingly, Democratic and Republican leaders in the California Legislature and in the state’s Congressional delegation worked hand in hand to draw a map that preserved the jobs of as many sitting Members as possible — both in Sacramento and in Washington, D.C.

What resulted — with a few exceptions — were some of the safest Congressional seats in the country, with very little competition for House seats in the elections that followed this decade.

The next round of redistricting is right around the corner. But Gov. Arnold Schwarzenegger’s (R) repeated attempts to overhaul California’s system for drawing House seats, so as to create districts that are more competitive, have resulted in massive opposition among both Democrats and Republicans.

This suggests that there is little chance that the 2011 remap will be handled much differently than what occurred in 2001, although that ultimately depends on who replaces Schwarzenegger as governor in 2010.

In California, the state Legislature draws Congressional boundaries, although the governor must sign off on the map. With the Legislature firmly in Democratic control, the party in 2011 could be in a position to draw a map that adds Democratic seats at Republicans’ expense.

Republican political consultant Allan Hoffenblum, who is based in Los Angeles, said that could happen if a Democrat is elected to replace the term-limited Schwarzenegger in 2010. Hoffenblum said redistricting will be an issue in the 2010 GOP gubernatorial primary, as some Republicans will push to nominate a moderate — the only kind of Republican seen as capable of winning a statewide race in California.

“If it’s a Democratic governor, [the Democrats] will do everything they can to gerrymander the hell out of [the new map] and maximize the number of Democratic seats,” Hoffenblum said. “There will be pressure to nominate a moderate Republican as governor so that he can veto” any remap that is too favorable for Democrats.

Schwarzenegger is pushing a state Legislature redistricting reform measure on the Nov. 4 ballot. However, the governor dropped his push to revamp how Congressional districts are drawn.

In the event that little change occurs following the 2011 redistricting, there are several California politicians who are seen as strong potential candidates for the House — particularly because the Legislature limits Assemblymen to three two-year terms and state Senators to two four-year terms.

Should eight-term Rep. Ed Royce (R) choose to vacate the GOP-leaning 40th district anytime soon — he’s given no indication that he has any plans to do so — his successor could be plucked from a group of Republicans that includes former state Sen. John Lewis, state Sen. Dick Ackerman, state Assemblyman Mike Duvall and Orange County Supervisor Chris Norby.

In the 41st district, Rep. Jerry Lewis (R) has been the subject of retirement rumors for the past couple of years. Although he’s running for re-election this year, he will be 74 in October and is serving his 15th term. Should he choose retirement next cycle, replacement possibilities include former state Senate Minority Leader Jim Brulte (R), San Bernardino County District Attorney Michael Ramos (R), state Sen. Bob Dutton (R) and state Assemblyman Anthony Adams (R).

In the solidly Republican 42nd district, there has also been speculation that the incumbent might retire. But like Lewis, Rep. Gary Miller (R) is running for re-election this year. Should he opt for retirement next cycle, Duvall, state Assemblyman Bob Huff and Mission Viejo City Councilman Frank Ury might be among those angling for his seat.

The 43rd district is a rare Democratic outpost in the Republican-leaning Inland Empire suburbs, which begin about 40 miles east of downtown Los Angeles and stretch eastward. Rep. Joe Baca (D) appears firmly ensconced in that seat. But should he choose to retire, state Sen. Gloria Negrete McLeod (D) is seen as the obvious choice to replace him.

Negrete McLeod previously served in the Assembly, and in fact had a hand in putting the brakes on what had been a budding Baca family political dynasty in the Inland Empire. In 2006, then-state Assemblyman Joe Baca Jr., the Congressman’s son, challenged Negrete McLeod in her state Senate primary. Baca Jr. lost to McLeod.

Meanwhile, Baca Jr.’s younger brother, Jeremy Baca, lost in the 2006 Democratic primary to replace Baca Jr. in the state Assembly. Jeremy Baca lost that primary to now-state Assemblymember Wilmer Amina Carter, who is also seen as a potential successor to Baca in the 43rd district.