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Senate Fight: Still Too Early to Count Chickens

Bill Clark/CQ Roll Call
Virginia, where former Democratic Sen. Tim Kaine (above) is running, is one of three tossup Senate races that will decide which party controls the chamber.

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Romney’s campaign seems to have conceded the state to the president, and Casey — whose name continues to be an asset in Northeast Pennsylvania and in the western third of the state, where the president is stunningly weak — is almost certain to run ahead of Obama statewide.  

With the elections a mere two weeks away, the safest thing to say is that anything from a Democratic gain of four seats to a Republican gain of five seats is possible. 

Unfortunately, nobody will let me get away with that estimate. The most likely outcome now — two weeks before Election Day — looks like no change to a GOP gain of three seats. But if voters decide to fire Obama and hire Romney to replace him, Republican control of the Senate would suddenly look very possible.

In any case, keep those seat belts fastened. Close races, recounts and Independent Angus King in Maine could make for a long night — or a long few days — in November.

Stuart Rothenberg is editor of the Rothenberg Political Report.

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