Although a new Democratic poll shows GOP Rep. Steve Southerland (above) and challenger Al Lawson in a dead heat, itís hard to imagine Lawson winning in November, Stuart Rothenberg writes.
So, I donít have trouble accepting the Lester poll or other private Democratic surveys showing Lawson running even with Southerland in the mid-40s. But Lawsonís problem is that he is starting to bump up against his ceiling. He will need to get half of the votes cast in the district, and he canít get there next month.
Given that, while some observers look at Lesterís poll and see a possible Lawson victory, all I see is a candidate getting his base vote ó a vote that, because of the districtís makeup, will fall a few points short of what he needs.
Terri Henderson, 6, center, whose mother is El Salvador, attends a rally with members of Congress at Union Station's Columbus Circle to announce the Restore Opportunity, Strengthen, and Improve the Economy (ROSIE) Act on July 29, 2014. The legislation provides incentives for government contractors to pay a living wage and other benefits that would help low-income workers.