Although a new Democratic poll shows GOP Rep. Steve Southerland (above) and challenger Al Lawson in a dead heat, it’s hard to imagine Lawson winning in November, Stuart Rothenberg writes.
So, I don’t have trouble accepting the Lester poll or other private Democratic surveys showing Lawson running even with Southerland in the mid-40s. But Lawson’s problem is that he is starting to bump up against his ceiling. He will need to get half of the votes cast in the district, and he can’t get there next month.
Given that, while some observers look at Lester’s poll and see a possible Lawson victory, all I see is a candidate getting his base vote — a vote that, because of the district’s makeup, will fall a few points short of what he needs.