Dec. 18, 2014 SIGN IN | REGISTER
Download CQ Roll Call's Definitive Guide to the 114th Congress | Sign Up for Roll Call Newsletters | Get the Latest on the Roll Call App

Can a Race Be Tight and Yet Not Competitive?

Bill Clark/CQ Roll Call File Photo
Although a new Democratic poll shows GOP Rep. Steve Southerland (above) and challenger Al Lawson in a dead heat, its hard to imagine Lawson winning in November, Stuart Rothenberg writes.

So, I dont have trouble accepting the Lester poll or other private Democratic surveys showing Lawson running even with Southerland in the mid-40s. But Lawsons problem is that he is starting to bump up against his ceiling. He will need to get half of the votes cast in the district, and he cant get there next month.

Given that, while some observers look at Lesters poll and see a possible Lawson victory, all I see is a candidate getting his base vote a vote that, because of the districts makeup, will fall a few points short of what he needs.

Stuart Rothenberg is editor of the Rothenberg Political Report.

comments powered by Disqus

SIGN IN




OR

SUBSCRIBE

Want Roll Call on your doorstep?