Analysts believe Rep. Todd Akin would have stood a good chance to beat unpopular incumbent Sen. Claire McCaskill in the Missouri race had it not been for his on-air "legitimate rape" comments, among other campaign missteps.
And regardless of strategy or tactics, GOP operatives expect Akin will not have the money to push back against a barrage of negative ads.
"He's out of money," said a Republican operative familiar with the Missouri Senate race, echoing the sentiment of many others. "When she goes up [on TV] after the ballot is set, Akin won't be able to fight back, and he'll be done."
The widespread expectation of operatives of both parties is that McCaskill and her Democratic allies will launch a fusillade of potent negative ads against Akin once the deadline has passed, holding back only to ensure that they don't scare him out of the race.
"I think she's going to drop the hammer on this guy after the 25th, and until then she's going to keep the powder dry. But [after], she's going to break out the nuclear weaponry," said a Missouri Democratic consultant, who, like many political operatives familiar with the Show-Me State, declined to speak on the record before next Tuesday.
The Mason-Dixon poll found a whopping 56 percent of likely voters already had a negative opinion of Akin while only 17 percent had a favorable view of the Congressman. So a strong negative advertising campaign focused on his "legitimate rape" comments and others could be a political death knell.
McCaskill aides played down the Sept. 25 deadline. They said a whole host of other issues, including Social Security and Medicare, have played and will continue to play a prominent role in their campaign's communications.
Akin's campaign, meanwhile, continues to stumble. It recently launched (and subsequently removed) a "Women for Akin" website that included a photo of a Democratic operative.
A call to an Akin spokesman was not returned.
Despite the missteps, if Akin had some help from outside groups, this could become a competitive race again. But the National Republican Senatorial Committee has firmly pledged to stay out of the race if Akin remains the GOP candidate. And the juggernaut Republican-aligned group American Crossroads, the sister organization of Crossroads GPS, said it has no plans to spend in Missouri if Akin stays in the race.
Democrats worry that, with the Senate in the balance, an outside group might change its mind. And that seems to be the one way in which Akin might find a path to victory.
"If it's a battleground Senate race, it's going to be tight," said Nick Everhart, president of the Strategy Group for Media, Akin's media vendor. "The bottom didn't fall out on Todd like everyone expected. And the hope is that GOP and conservative groups will come in after they evaluate the race on Oct. 1."
Indeed, if the last stretch of the campaign rolls around and Missouri appears within reach, for independent expenditure groups hoping to take the Senate for Republicans, supporting Akin may be an offer they can't refuse.
Rep. Bill Cassidy has his blood drawn by Alesha Barbour during a free hepatitis screening in the Rayburn House Office Building hosted by the Congressional Viral Hepatitis Caucus to recognize "National Viral Hepatitis Testing Day."
Roll Call has launched a new feature, Hill Navigator, to advise congressional staffers and would-be staffers on how to manage workplace issues on Capitol Hill. Please send us your questions — anything from office etiquette, to handling awkward moments, to what happens when the work life gets too personal. Submissions will be treated anonymously.
